”Mistrust in the ceasefire, the next 60 days will be a crucial test”

”The Lebanese promises are not enough” to guarantee that the ceasefire reached between Israel and Hezbollah is effective. We need ”guarantees that Hezbollah is no longer able to threaten us and our families in the north” of Israel, we need to overcome ”the paradox that Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese government” and we need to understand if ”really France and the United Nations will be able to prevent Iran from participating in the reconstruction process of Lebanon and strengthening Hezbollah”. These are the doubts expressed to Adnkronos by Israeli colonel and analyst Sarit Zehavi, president and founder of the security research institute Alma Research and Education Center.

”I have no faith” in this agreement, says Zehavi who lives in the western Galilee on the border with Lebanon. ”The next 60 days will be crucial, they will allow Israel to make its assessments, to see if the United States is on our side, if Iran will not be allowed to help Hezbollah in the reconstruction process, if the Lebanese government will be in able to have a different relationship with Hezbollah”. In this ”the international community helps us, puts pressure on Lebanon to change relations with Hezbollah”.

‘further guarantees are needed for Israelis to return to living on the border with Lebanon’

In short, continues the reservist who served in the IDF for 15 years specializing in military intelligence, ”the main problem is not so much that a ceasefire agreement has been reached or what is behind it. The problem is that it is a political agreement that the parties involved can interpret in a different way. The real question is, how this political agreement will apply to reality”. Because ”no one is talking about it, but Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese government and we expect the Lebanese government to enforce a resolution that talks about limiting Hezbollah’s power. This is the key to the success of this process, but we don’t believe it can happen”.

Zehavi believes that ”neither the Lebanese government nor UNIFIL have enforced resolution 1701” and this is why ”Israel has insisted that it be recognized as having the ability to enforce the UN resolution, if not others will do”. Among other things, ”Hezbollah still has the ability to launch missiles and rockets against Israel” and this is why ”I’m not sure that many Israelis want to return to the north” after the agreement, ”not those who live in the immediate vicinity of the border with Lebanon. For them, further guarantees will be needed”. Furthermore, he continues, ”it is very important that the Israeli government continues with financing and compensation. When they are stopped, there will be no alternatives”. But ”accidents have already been recorded at the border in the last few hours. Hezbollah lives in southern Lebanon. And with the return of Lebanese citizens to their homes in the south, Hezbollah will return too”.