Will Israel preempt the attack? Iran’s double game exposed

While at the end of October Iran was preparing for a large-scale attack against Israel, and the deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards declared that “we have never left aggression unanswered in the last 40 years”, now the country is adopting a much more moderate line, as reported today (Thursday) in the New York Times.

Five Iranian officials, including a member of the Revolutionary Guards and two former senior officials, revealed that the victory of Donald Trump In the elections on November 5, he led to the change of policy. The sources, who asked to remain anonymous for fear of their safety, explained that the fear of the unexpected behavior of Trump, who in his previous term pursued a policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran, led to the move.

In a series of unusual measures, Iran sent a senior official to Beirut in mid-November to convince Hezbollah to agree to a cease-fire with Israel. At the same time, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Said Irvani met with the businessman Elon Musk close to President-elect Trump, trying to build bridges with the new administration. In addition, Iran is expected to hold talks in Geneva with European countries regarding its nuclear program.

The significant damage to Hezbollah in Lebanon – Iran’s closest and most important ally – along with the economic crisis in the country, which includes a continuous decrease in the value of the local currency and an expected shortage of energy for the winter, also contributed to the decision to change direction.

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Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Arakchi stated on Wednesday that Tehran welcomes the cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel, while emphasizing that “Iran retains its right to respond to the Israeli attacks from last month, but will consider regional developments such as the cease-fire in Lebanon.”

On the other hand, the Al Mayadeen channel close to Hezbollah announced that the Iranian Foreign Minister said: “The continuation of the threat of imposing new sanctions against Iran may push the Iranian nuclear case towards weapons.” He also added that Iran’s decision to inject gas into thousands of centrifuges comes as a result of the current pressures. “At the current stage, we do not have a decision to increase uranium enrichment by more than 60%,” according to Arakchi.

The diplomatic moves provoke a sharp internal dispute in Iran. While the moderate factions welcome the contacts, the conservative elements strongly attack the moves and called the UN ambassador a “traitor” for his meeting with Musk. Following the criticism, the Iranian Foreign Ministry even denied that the meeting took place.

Despite the internal tensions, many senior Iranian officials have publicly stated their willingness to negotiate with the Trump administration on nuclear and regional issues – a significant change from their position during his first term, when they refused to negotiate with Washington.

“Iran is now showing restraint to give Trump an opportunity to test whether he can end the war in Gaza and restrain Netanyahu,” he said Hossein Mosabian a former Iranian diplomat, “If this happens, it will open the way for more comprehensive negotiations between Tehran and Washington.”