A constitutional coup in Lebanon? Hezbollah’s desperate step after its defeat in the war

Dr. Nofal Dow, director of the Geopolitical Institute for the Middle East and North Africa, spoke on the Saudi Al Hadd channel about the political situation in Lebanon, especially regarding the influence of Hezbollah and the international situation. The expert was asked about the chance of breaking the political deadlock in Lebanon, following reports from Axios that Hezbollah is In its weakest state in years, and is this the time to develop an opportunity to change the situation.

Dr. Nofal describes the political situation in Lebanon as an opportunity to rebuild the constitutional institutions and restore the powers in the country, But states his fear that Hezbollah will try to impose its positions on the Lebanese people, as it did in previous wars (2006 and 2008). He points out that despite its military defeat in the last war, Hezbollah is trying to present itself as the winner and influence the political system.

Dr. Ido Zelkovich, head of the Middle East Studies program at Emek Jezreel Academic College, commented on the reactions in the Arab world to the ceasefire announced on Tuesday night. According to him, from the next morning, photos and videos, many of which are staged, were circulated on social networks, in which Hezbollah members are seen in areas they were not allowed to visit. The IDF Ground Forces arrived. In these videos, they express joy over the ruins and the swords of the houses, while they smile – scenes he sees as an “attempt for the theater of the absurd” known from the Middle East.

This concern joins other voices around the world, who express concern about Lebanon’s reconstruction attempts after the war. David Ignatius, a senior journalist and author in the United States, noted the day after the cease-fire: “After many months of complex negotiations on peace in the Middle East, the Biden administration succeeded in brokering a cease-fire in Lebanon, which will provide the stricken country with an unprecedented opportunity in recent years to regain control of its sovereignty over its territory – and maybe even open the door to wider diplomatic achievements in the region.”

Against the background of these voices, the tensions on the northern border continue unabated, despite the declaration of the ceasefire agreement. Yesterday, the residents of the Finger of the Galilee reported continuous artillery fire towards Lebanese territory, when southern Lebanon reported IDF attacks in a series of settlements, including Al-Khyam, A-Taiba, Marj-Ayon and Ramish, this, as mentioned, after only about two days from the moment he entered The agreement goes into effect, which aggravates the concerns about the possibility of political rehabilitation and stability in Lebanon.

The doctor adds that there is a risk that Hezbollah will try to circumvent the Lebanese constitution in order to change the political reality, and emphasizes the need for caution in this period. He explains Hezbollah’s position against the conversation with Nabia Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, and Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who talked about the need to turn a new page in Lebanon.

Later, a political proposal based on the appointment of a new president will be discussed, where the goal is to return Lebanon to the path of constitution, law and economic, political and strategic development, and return it to the world system, after it joined the Iranian influence in the region.