The rebels in Syria: “It is impossible to achieve change in Lebanon without change in Syria”

The attack by the Syrian rebels in Idlib marks a very significant blow to the Shiite axis, according to an interview by “Maariv” today (Saturday) with Ksenia Svetlovaa former Knesset member and commentator on Arab affairs. “For several months there has been an exchange of blows between them and the Assad regime,” Svetlova explains. “I don’t think anyone followed them that much in Israel, because of course we are all dealing with Lebanon and Gaza, but there are Russian bombings on Idlib almost every day, by the Russian and Syrian air forces, and there are attempts by the rebels to hit the Syrian army as well.” But this time the situation is different, according to her, due to a unique combination of circumstances.

“When we take into account the significant weakening of Hezbollah, which is the pillar of the Syrian regime, it relies on this armed group as if on crutches,” Svetlova explains. “His army is weak and in fact there are no other significant militias that stand by his side.” At the same time, the powers that support the Assad regime are limited: “Russia is busy with Ukraine and Iran, it has its own problems and of course Iran never sends its own soldiers to fight for the Syrians or the Lebanese.”

The regional consequences could be dramatic. “It is impossible to achieve a change in reality in Lebanon, that is, to weaken Hezbollah and perhaps even remove it from power, without first seeing a change in Syria and the collapse of the Assad regime or its significant weakening,” emphasizes Svetlova. “Syria has always interfered in Lebanese affairs, it will continue to interfere in Lebanese affairs as long as it has the political power and is so close there and actually sees Lebanon as part of Syria.”

Despite the normalization of Arab countries’ relations with Assad, Western sanctions prevent investments in the reconstruction of Syria. “No Arab country that respects itself and that sees development and trade with the West as its goal and does not want its banks to be harmed, will invest there,” Svetlova explains.

As far as Russia is concerned, the rebels in Idlib are seen as a significant threat: “They see them as terrorists. Many of them indeed belong to very, very extreme organizations. Some of them are identified with Al Qaeda and other jihadist organizations,” Svetlova says. “As far as the Russians are concerned, this is what they are fighting against. This is the opposition, it must be destroyed.”

However, Svetlova warns against premature optimism: “There is no collapse here yet, we are still in the middle of this process. We don’t know what a day will bring forth.” She mentions that “in the past we have seen attempts at rebellion and we have also seen the civil war, which was eventually suppressed.”

“This is a very significant blow to the Shia axis,” Svetlova concludes, “which actually failed to protect either Hezbollah or Hamas, and if now they are unable to even protect Syria, then basically everything collapses, their whole concept collapses.” Even if the rebels do not achieve all their goals, “there is a very significant psychological damage here… following all the beatings they suffered during this year,” she explained.