Production slowed down last month, but Vietnam’s full-year export results are expected to exceed the 400 billion USD mark, according to experts.
UOB’s newly released report forecasts that Vietnam’s exports this year will increase by 18%, the highest since 2021. Last year, export turnover reached 355.5 billion USD, down 4.4% compared to the previous year. 2022, according to the General Statistics Office.
Therefore, UOB’s forecast means this year’s results could be approximately nearly 420 billion USD. According to data from the General Department of Customs, from the beginning of the year to the end of November 15, export turnover was approximately equal to last year, reaching 352.38 billion USD, an increase of 14.8% over the same period in 2023.
Some prominent contributing product groups include: computers, electronics and components increased by 12.79 billion USD (26.1%); machinery, equipment and spare parts increased by 8.08 billion USD (21.7%). Along with that, textiles, wood and wood products also grew in double digits.
As of November 15, the country’s total import value reached 329.1 billion USD, an increase of 16.6% over the same period. According to UOB, this year’s trade growth is partly due to the continued expansion of foreign direct investment flows.
In the first 10 months of the year, 27.3 billion USD of FDI was registered in Vietnam. Realized capital is on track for a third consecutive year of record levels. “The latest published data shows that Vietnam’s growth trajectory is still on track,” UOB commented.
However, the short-term situation shows signs of slowing down. Vietnam’s November Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) announced by S&P Global recorded 50.8 points, showing that the manufacturing industry grew for the second consecutive month, but not as much as October, when the PMI reached 51.2.
According to the New York-based financial information and analysis company, output and the number of new orders have slowed. In particular, new orders from abroad decreased after a slight increase in the previous month.
“To some extent, slowing growth reflects weakening international demand, with exports falling by the largest amount since July 2023,” said Andrew Harker, Chief Economics Officer at S&P Global. Market Intelligence said.
However, S&P Global’s survey said that Vietnamese manufacturers are still optimistic that output will increase next year, with expectations related to plans to launch new products and expand business, plus other factors. New orders increased.
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