The main reason why Mexicans migrate to the United States is that the job and salary offer is better, but that does not mean that there is a lack of opportunities in the country, BBVA stated.
Carlos Serrano, chief economist at BBVA, stated that during the pandemic and subsequent months it was observed that the number of Mexicans returning to the country increased, but once economic activity in the United States recovered, the labor and salary offer improved there. and they returned in search of occupation in that country.
“In the years after the pandemic there was an increase in migratory flows to the United States, because job opportunities increased significantly… When the labor market grows in the United States, the number of people who migrate increases.
The variable that has the most weight (in migratory flows from Mexico to the United States) is the US labor market, more than immigration and detention policies. The variable that weighs the most (for migrating) is labor demand, when opportunities increase in that country, given the wage differential, migratory flows increase.
Serrano said in the presentation of the 2024 Migration and Remittances Yearbook, a publication by BBVA and the National Population Council.
According to the document, the Mexican population in the United States is approximately 12 million. A fifth, 21 percent, work in the construction sector; 13.6 percent in professional and administrative services; 13 percent in hospitality and leisure and 12.8 percent in manufacturing.
Improbable, a mass deportation
Serrano confirmed – he had already commented on it in an interview with The Day last week – that given the imminent arrival of Trump to the presidency of the United States, a mass deportation of Mexicans is not anticipated.
It can happen, we believe the probability is low, because that would cause significant damage to the United States economy. You can do it, but it is likely to trigger a recession and high levels of inflation.