Trapped in the Italian syndrome: continuity in mediocrity. 2024 may be remembered as the year of records (of employed people and foreign tourism, but also of the birth rate decline, public debt and abstentionism), but an analysis that goes beyond the data alone provides a more multifaceted image of the country’s socio-economic situation. Censis, in its 58th annual report on the social situation of the country, sees Italy remaining on a waterline, without incurring disastrous tumbles in the recessionary phases or making climbs in the positive cycles. The driving force towards increasing well-being, notes Censis, “has faded”. Over the last twenty years (2003-2023) gross disposable income per capita has decreased in real terms by 7.0%. And over the last decade (between the second quarter of 2014 and the second quarter of 2024) net wealth per capita has also decreased by 5.5%. The Italian syndrome, therefore, “hides quite a few pitfalls”, because it could lead to a phase of economic and social immobilism. It is no coincidence that 85.5% of Italians are now convinced that it is very difficult to climb the social ladder. Many accounts “don’t add up” in the Italian system, reflects Censis, and many equations “remain unsolved”.
Despite the not encouraging signs on the trend of the GDPthe number of employed stood at 23,878,000 on average in the first six months of the year, with an increase of one and a half million jobs compared to the black year of the Covid pandemic and an increase of 4.6 % compared to 2007. But the distance between the Italian employment rate (we are last in Europe) and the European average still remains significant: 8.9 percentage points less in 2023. If our activity rate were equal to the European average, we could have 3 million additional workforces. While if we reached the European level of the employment rate, we would exceed the threshold of 26 million employed: 3.3 million moreof those recorded in 2023. The production of Italian manufacturing activities has entered a negative spiral: -1.2% between 2019 and 2023. The comparison of the first eight months of 2024 with the same period of 2023 reveals a fall in 3.4%.
Tourism and employment
Presences in Italy reached 447 million in 2023, an increase of 18.7% compared to 2013. The most evident increase in the decade is attributable to the foreign component (+26.7%), which stands at 234 million presences , but domestic tourism still grew by 10.9%. In Rome alone, tourist presences in 2023 exceeded 37 million. In terms of productivity, however, in the period 2003-2023 tertiary activities recorded a reduction in added value per employee of 1.2%, while industry showed an increase of 10.0%. The country is short of some professional figures, the share compared to the needs of companies has reached 45.1% of the total expected hirings (it was 21.5% in 2017). Above all, the weight of figures that are difficult to find due to the shortage of candidates has increased: from 9.7% of the total hirings expected in 2017 to 28.4% in 2023. Health specialists and technicians are the red primrose of the job market. The reduced number of candidates concerns 70.7% of the job demand for nurses and midwives, 66.8% for pharmacists and 64.0% of open positions for medical staff. The shortage of candidates also concerns plumbers (47.7% of expected hires) and electricians (40.2%). On the social security front, the future is uncertain: 75.7% think they will not have an adequate pension when they leave their job. As many as 89.8% of young people have this certainty.
Poverty does not retreat
Italy has a percentage of people at risk of poverty before social transfers equal to 27.2% and 18.9% after them, while the EU average figures are equal to 24.8% and 16% respectively, 2%. According to a Censis survey, 9.8% of adult Italians live in families where the income is not sufficient to cover monthly expenses. Furthermore, 8.4% of Italians are in a condition of food poverty, 9.5% in energy poverty and 2.7 million adults in a condition of eye poverty. Freedom of choice even for pensioners. 65.2% of Italians believe that individual freedom to retire before the set age should be recognized, even if suffering small penalties. At the same time, 59.6% believe that it would be appropriate to allow pensioners to work if they want to do so (the figure rises to 77.6% among the elderly). 81.2% of young people are convinced that savings and the development of supplementary pensions are essential to guarantee a peaceful old age.