Syria|Syria’s economic weight is low, but political uncertainty is likely to increase.
Syria autocratic president Bashar al-Assad the direct effects of the collapse on the market are likely to be minor, estimates the chief analyst of the financial company Danske Bank Minna Kuusisto.
“Syria is not a major energy producer like many other countries in the Middle East. Indirectly, the fall of al-Assad weakens the alliance between Iran and Russia. For this reason, Iran hardly wants to escalate its conflict with Israel.”
In the worst case, Iran could block oil shipments in the Persian Gulf, which would cause serious disruptions to the energy market. As a result, oil would be significantly more expensive and would accelerate inflation, i.e. from rising consumer prices.
“The fall of Al-Assad will inevitably increase political uncertainty. This, in turn, can indirectly affect the market. Many Western countries are likely to be satisfied with the fall of al-Assad, but it is difficult to say who will be the winners. Maybe Turkey in the sense that it has supported the Syrian rebels,” says Kuusisto.
Also finance group OP’s chief economist Reijo Heiskanen believes that the effects of al-Assad’s fall on the international financial and energy markets will be relatively minor in these prospects.
“During the year, the situation in the Middle East has mainly had temporary effects on the market due to uncertainty. Uncertainty can increase even now, but based on the past, there is no reason to expect greater or longer-term effects,” says Heiskanen.