Europe has an acute problem which, according to researchers, can quickly escalate into a dangerous one.
It is about the fact that the strong alliance of Germany and France, which has traditionally led the EU, is seriously faltering when both countries are in a political crisis and economic difficulties.
At the same time, the EU should position itself Donald Trump’s for a second presidential term and help Ukraine win against Russia.
The ominous-sounding situation suits Italy perfectly Giorgia Melonillewho has played his cards right for this throughout his prime ministerial term.
Meloni, who has supported Trump for a long time, is also a close ally of the Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbánin with. He has tried to create the best possible relations with the more moderate president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyeniin. The most recent demonstration is how far-right and euro-critical Italy is Raffaele Fitto was promoted to vice-president of the commission
Now Melon has the opportunity to become the political leader of the EU. Analyzing political risks Eurasia Group manager Ian Bremmer says directly that the future of the entire EU now depends specifically on Melon.
The change in the Italian Prime Minister’s policy is already visible. He no longer seeks to attend meetings between the German Chancellor and the French President. Instead, he discusses a member of Trump’s inner circle Tesla-billionaire Elon Musk’s and with Viktor Orbán weekly.
“The biggest question is what the melon-eyed EU will do to support Ukraine.”
In Germany and France, caught in a political storm, exactly the same development is brewing under the surface. French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is already running full speed to win the 2027 presidential election, and Germany’s far-right party AfD is predicted to be one of the big winners of the Bundestag election.
In a couple of years, decisions in the European Council may therefore be made with a far-right majority.
Professor of European Law Alberto Alemanno estimates that this probably means that Ursula von der Leyen’s second commission will soon begin to implement very similar policies to the Trump cabinet starting in January.
The biggest question of all is what the melon-headed EU will do to support Ukraine.
“If Meloni openly moves to Orbán’s lines, the situation will become completely impossible,” is Ian Bremmer’s answer.
The first indication of this was received on Wednesday from Rome, where Orbán, who was visiting, discussed with Meloni what kind of conditions Ukraine should agree to in possible peace negotiations.
The author is Kauppalehti’s correspondent in Udine.