With a two-day negotiation marathon want the ailing German car giant VW and the one there IG Metall union Next week we will try to resolve the collective bargaining dispute at Volkswagen before Christmas. Both sides want to meet again on Monday – and if necessary also on Tuesday. However, neither of them has yet spoken of a real rapprochement.
Negotiations starting Monday in Hanover
This time both sides are not meeting at the VW headquarters in Wolfsburg, but in one Hotel in Hanover, northern Germany. The fifth round of negotiations is scheduled to begin on Monday at 11 a.m. According to IG Metall, it is impossible to estimate how long it will last – not even in terms of the day.
Volkswagen is demanding one from its employees because of the corporate crisis ten percent wage cut and also wants to eliminate various bonuses and allowances. Plant closures and redundancies are also still threatened. IG Metall, on the other hand, demands this Preservation of all locations and one Employment guarantee for around 130,000 employees. She rejects permanent cuts in monthly wages.
Verbal disarmament in advance
Both sides had at least verbal agreement in the previous round of collective bargaining noticeably dismantled. After seven hours of negotiations, VW negotiator Arne Meiswinkel spoke of constructive talks and progress in the discussion. According to negotiating circles, serious negotiations took place for the first time instead of just exchanging deadlocked positions.
IG Metall negotiator Thorsten Gröger also reported one a much more constructive conversation climate. However, both sides emphasized that the content was still far apart. “The atmosphere of our recent discussions can perhaps best be described as “conditionally open to action,” said works council boss Daniela Cavallo, who sits at the negotiating table for IG Metall.
Threat of further warning strikes
At the same time, IG Metall is threatening: If there is no agreement before Christmas, it reserves the right to do so Warning strikes in the new year to expand significantly. “Now it means: Either the company will set the right course shortly before Christmas, or we will face a massive escalation in 2025,” said Gröger.
The last round of collective bargaining was already accompanied by another warning strike at nine of the ten German VW locations. According to IG Metall, a total of people took part 103,000 employees at what is now the second strike. VW, on the other hand, only spoke of 55,000 participants who were registered with the employment agency. The union explained the deviations with different views on the reporting obligation of warning strike participants.
Agreement before Christmas?
Is there now a breakthrough? “An acceleration of negotiations before Christmas could more movement into the messy situation ,” says industry expert Frank Schwope from the Fachhochschule des Mittelstands in Hanover. However, an agreement before Christmas is difficult to imagine given the positions that are still “miles apart.”
“However, it’s okay sometimes quickly“Adds Schwope. A reduction in working hours to a four or four and a half day week is conceivable. A similar solution was used to prevent massive job cuts at VW in 1993.
Christmas increases pressure for conflict resolution
The approaching Christmas has repeatedly increased the pressure at VW to resolve conflicts beforehand. A year ago, on December 19th, after months of struggle, the company and the works council agreed on a key point first efficiency program. This quickly proved to be insufficient – that’s why VW now wants to add more.
Also the power struggle between Cavallo and the then CEO Herbert Diess was defused on December 9th, 2021 – at least temporarily. Eight months later, the CEO still had to resign. In the current wage dispute, both sides have also stated several times that they want to resolve the conflict by the festival.
“Shadow tariff” becomes a cost risk
What further increases the pressure for agreement this time: If there is no agreement on job security, a so-called agreement will occur in mid-2025 “Shadow tariff” in force, which had been on ice since 1993. Instead of it becoming cheaper for VW, it would actually become cheaper become more expensive. Around half of the workforce that was on board before 2005 would be affected. According to Handelsblatt, there would be an average increase of 4.5 percent – without any collective agreement. One to two billion euros would end up costing VW.
If this were to happen, VW has already threatened especially redundancies for operational reasons necessary. This would be possible from July 2025. The company is also aiming for a follow-up regulation that would prevent this. The group terminated the existing agreement in September, which had ruled out redundancies since 1993.
Expert fears too big concessions
Industry expert Stefan Bratzel from the Center of Automotive Management (CAM) in Bergisch Gladbach warns against this, this time too too big concessions close. He fears that in the end they will only agree on a few small measures, but they are weren’t enough.
“You tweak a little bit here, tweak a little bit there. But not so fundamentally that VW gets back to the top,” fears Bratzel. “In my opinion that would be the worst option.” The Problems would then be in a few years just bigger.
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