Growth of 1.6% this year, predicts the private sector

Economic analysts consulted by the Bank of Mexico (BdeM) once again raised their forecast for the country’s economic growth this year; The projection went from 1.53 to 1.6 percent.

According to the survey on the expectations of private sector specialists as of December, released yesterday, by 2025 experts predict that activity will slow down compared to this year, from 1.2 to 1.12 percent. For 2026 the projection is 1.6 percent.

According to the document, experts consider that, in general, the main factors that could hinder Mexico’s economic growth in the next six months are those that are associated with governance and both internal and external economic conditions.

In particular, the main factors that could slow the progress of the gross domestic product, according to those surveyed, are public insecurity, other problems of lack of rule of law, uncertainty about the internal political and economic situation, trade policy abroad and the absence of structural changes in Mexico.

77% predict adverse business climate

This month’s survey was carried out among 41 analysis and consulting groups from the national and foreign private sector, and 77 percent of them consider that the business climate in the next six months will worsen, 13 percent that it will remain the same as now and 10 percent that will improve.

Ninety percent of those surveyed indicated that the Mexican economy is currently no better than a year ago and 10 percent said it is.

In turn, 8 percent considered that it is a good time to make investments, 59 percent did not and 33 percent were not sure.

Regarding inflation, experts consider that it will close 2024 at 4.37 percent, 2025 at 3.8 percent and 2026 at 3.7, while the exchange rate is estimated at 20.25 units per dollar, 20.53 and 21 pesos per greenback, respectively.

On the other hand, they anticipate that the central bank’s reference rate, which is the instrument that sets the cost at which companies and families are financed, will end the year at 10 percent, which by 2025 will drop to 8.25 percent and in 2026 to 7.5 percent.