Ukraine should not be forced into a bad peace

The leaders of the EU countries met in Brussels on Thursday for the first time under the new Commission.

Chairman Ursula von der Leyenin the new commission started its work at the beginning of December. The former Prime Minister of Estonia, who is in charge of the EU’s foreign policy, started the same way Kaja Kalla and leading the speech at the summit Antonio Costa.

The most important topics are support for Ukraine. To increase the pressure, the president also Volodymyr Zelenskyi arrived to give his regards.

Donald Trump’s taking office in January is approaching. Trump has announced that he wants a quick decision on the war in Ukraine.

In Europe and Ukraine, the fear is that the United States will reduce armed aid, which will weaken Ukraine’s acute situation on the front. Financial support from the EU has helped to stabilize Ukraine’s economic situation, but the EU countries will not be able to replace the armed support if Trump reduces US military aid. The EU’s own stocks are starting to be empty, and the European defense industry is unable to quickly increase production.

Kallas bluntly warned against pushing Zelensky into peace negotiations. Kallas’ message is that the front lines are in motion and not the Russian president Vladimir Putin have no incentives to negotiate peace. The weaker the support for Ukraine becomes, the greater the incentives for Putin to continue the war. The Secretary General of NATO also sent a similar message Mark Rutten from the direction.

At the meeting, the EU leaders clarified their unified message towards Trump. The EU’s argument is that support must be given to Ukraine so that the negotiating positions are as good as possible. A weak peace agreement for Ukraine would also make Trump look weak. The message of the EU countries is also that peace should not be negotiated over the heads of Ukraine and the EU.

Ukraine also has its own aces up its sleeve. At the end of this year, the five-year gas transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia’s state-owned Gazprom expires. Ukraine has announced that it will not renew the agreement.

Russian gas passing through Ukraine has gone to Austria, Slovakia and Hungary. Ukraine said earlier this week that the country can supply gas as long as it is not Russian.

Even though the gas volumes have not been large, for example the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán may have to re-position its line that sympathizes with Russia, when dependence on the EU’s financial support starts to weigh more in the balance. The same applies to the prime minister of Slovakia Robert Ficoon. It may prompt some EU-level decisions regarding Ukraine.

In any case, Ukraine is facing the hardest winter of war so far, because Russia has destroyed so much of its energy infrastructure.

The diplomatic abilities of the EU now have a lot of weight in ensuring that the support of the USA remains as it was. At the same time, the EU must increase its own for Ukraine. The fate of Ukraine should be equally important for every EU country, the end of the war for Putin’s victory would not bode well for the future.