At the age of 43, he came to government as head of the Liberal Party, with a progressive agenda, a joint cabinet and a series of reforms that aimed to continue maintaining the standard of living of Canadians, but after a decade his government and his figure They have been worn out.
A latest Ipsos poll indicates that 73% of Canadians believe that Trudeau should resign as leader of the Liberal Party, while only 27% want him to stay in government. The figures also indicate a drop in support for the liberals: 20% compared to 45% for their rivals, the conservatives, who are already on the lookout to be able to take back the reins.
Although this crisis has been brewing since the pandemic, it exploded in mid-December when the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freeland, abruptly resigned from her positions and sent her a letter that she made public on social networks where she indicated that neither She nor Trudeau had the same vision of Canada’s destiny. The second in command left the government ship, making it clear that one of the most industrialized economies in the world was no longer so buoyant.
How did Canada get into this situation?
Trudeau became prime minister at the end of 2015 and the honeymoon with his country and the world lasted a few years, but since 2020 social unrest began to grow. Although his social policies lifted 435,000 children out of poverty, many populist decisions ended up creating a time bomb. And one of the most affected sectors has been housing.
According to a report by The Economist, the cost of home ownership in Canada has increased 66% since Trudeau took office. “Lack of supply is a problem in many countries, but it is especially serious in Canada. In 2022, the average for OECD countries was 468 homes per 1,000 inhabitants. Canada had 426, a figure that has barely budged in a decade,” the research indicates.
Another key factor in this crisis has been the open-door immigration policy that Trudeau promoted since he came to power, to differentiate himself from the American Donald Trump, who in his first term imposed a ban on some Muslim countries, such as Syria. The Canadian strategy allowed the arrival of three million people over three years, including more than 45,000 Syrian refugees. However, this increased the housing crisis, which was reflected in other services, such as health and education.
Thus, the number of temporary foreign workers increased from 109,000 in 2018 to 240,000 in 2023. The number of non-permanent residents – including temporary foreign workers, students and asylum seekers – increased from 1.3 million in 2021 to more 3 million in July 2024, according to Statistics Canada, representing 7.3% of Canada’s total population of 41 million inhabitants.
Trump’s return
Justin Trudeau already knows what it’s like to deal with Donald Trump. During the American’s first term they had several disagreements, although interests and business always took precedence. The Republican’s return has posed another immense challenge, since from the start he already threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian products if border control is not improved to prevent the entry of fentanyl through the northern border of the United States, a a strategy that tastes more like an excuse but is part of the new trade war that the New Yorker wants to wage.
And taking advantage of the internal political situation in Canada, Trump does not stop ‘trolling’ Trudeau just to put more fuel on the fire, knowing that these could be the progressive’s last months in office.
Canada, which is one of the most open economies in the world, ostensibly depends on its exports, 77% of which go to the US market and are based, above all, on the energy sector. So the threat of tariffs is no small thing and would be catastrophic for the Canadian economy.
The end of the road?
After the resounding resignation of Chrystia Freeland, Trudeau proceeded to renew his ministerial team to weather the storm. Dominic LeBlanc, a veteran liberal politician and one of his stalwarts, is the new Minister of Finance and one of those who will be in charge of negotiating the thorny issue of tariffs with the United States.
But this will not be enough for Trudeau to make it through October, when the federal elections will be held. The Liberal Party governs in a minority thanks to the alliance with the center-left New Democratic Party (NPD), which has already openly said that it will no longer support it and has called for a vote of no confidence to remove Trudeau from office. But in addition, around twenty liberal deputies have publicly asked the prime minister to step aside, leaving him almost on the edge of the precipice.
The conservative who breathes down your neck
Pierre Poilievre has been the leader of the Conservative Party since 2022. He is 45 years old and is already emerging as the next prime minister of Canada, if Trudeau ends up leaving office early. At least, the polls say so and support for the Liberal Party has shifted towards the conservatives, who left the government in 2015.
As expected, Poilievre has asked for the elections to be brought forward as soon as possible, and has indicated that Canada must have a “strong Government.”
In 2022, the Canadian politician, who is married to a Venezuelan woman, supported a blockade of Ottawa, the country’s capital, led by truck drivers who opposed mandatory vaccination and Covid-19 restrictions.
However, Trudeau could hold out a little longer. The convenient recess of Parliament for the Christmas holidays extends until January 27, during which time the waters could calm down. Until then, he can call early elections and remain prime minister while the Liberals look for a new leader, or he could even run himself, although his chances of re-election are predicted to be remote. Another option is for him to extend the extension of the legislative holidays, but this could unleash the fury of his opponents who could censure him and remove him from office.
One way or another, Trudeau’s days at the head of the Government of Canada are approaching the end, after twelve years in which, unlike his predecessors, he did not go unnoticed.
INTERVIEW
“He is beginning to be blinded by power”
Rose Chabot
PhD in Political Science from McGill University, Montreal
- What have been the mistakes that Canadians complain most about Trudeau?
What people reproach most is the lack of responsible management of public finances, mainly since the covid-19 pandemic, which is associated with a significant level of inflation, an increase in the cost of living and the accommodation crisis in recent years. years.
Then there is Trudeau’s style of power management, which has recently been seen as not fully reflecting Canadian political culture. His latest decisions and changes in the cabinet show him as a weakened leader, disconnected from his party and the population, who is beginning to be blinded by power.
- How should the Government of Canada handle its relationship with the United States and this threat from Trump to impose tariffs?
The US is a historical economic and political partner, but it is also a partner in a very unequal power relationship, since the Canadian economy is highly dependent on the US market. It is still difficult to know whether the threats of the 25% tariff are really serious or are part of the speech of an empowered, newly elected Trump who wants to please his voters. Here you can feel the nervousness of the federal government and the provincial governments about how to approach the negotiation and diplomatic relations with the United States. This issue will undoubtedly be crucial in the next electoral campaign.
- Are there elements to negotiate?
There are two issues that mean that this prudent relationship that we want to develop is limited in terms of resources and what can really be done to meet Trump’s requests. The first issue that Trump addresses is that of informal migration, which is supposed to go from Canada to the United States, but this supposed wave of migration is not proven and nor, theoretically, is it within Canada’s responsibility to monitor the US border. The US has the responsibility to control its border, and in that sense Canada’s ability to address this issue is limited.
Another important issue is the opioid crisis, which is greatly affecting the United States but also Canada, especially in large urban centers. However, due to Canada’s federal and multi-level governance model, the federal government is not in a strong position to address these crises, especially because it is under pressure to return to fiscal and budgetary balance.
An element of leverage that could be used from the Canadian side is the energy sector, especially the oil sector. But the exploitation of natural resources mainly involves the provinces, and that makes it more complicated because the federal government would have to negotiate with the provinces, and two of them have conservative governments. All of this will have to be evaluated in the current context of political instability, which has not been seen in the country for a long time.
- Could Trudeau continue until the end of his term?
That’s hard to answer, but I would say that with the withdrawal of NDP support and with the current crisis there could be changes at any time. In the Liberal Party there does not seem to be a figure who can take the reins and for the next elections a conservative government is probably announced, so it is understandable that no one wants to take the helm of the liberal ship, which seems to be sinking.