Mr. Trump’s idea of ​​annexing Canada ‘does more harm than good’

Immediately after Canadian Prime Minister Justine Trudeau announced her plan to resign, US President-elect Donald Trump repeated the idea of ​​turning the neighboring country into an American state, even stating the word “annexation” for the first time.

“If Canada merges with the US, there will be no more tariffs, and tax payments will also decrease,” Mr. Trump wrote on the social network Truth Social. “Together, we will have a great nation.”

The first time Mr. Trump raised the idea of ​​making Canada the 51st state of the US was during a meeting with Prime Minister Trudeau at Mar-a-Lago in early December 2024, a month after the US presidential election.

Many of Mr. Trump’s allies quickly expressed support for the idea. After Congress confirmed the electoral votes of the states that voted for Mr. Trump on January 6, Republican senator Lindsey Graham said “my only thought today is that we ignored Canada’s electoral votes.” . We’ll fix this next time”, referring to making Canada an American state.

Kevin O’Leary, host Shark Tankalso mentioned the idea of ​​merging the two economies and “eliminating the border between the US and Canada” on Fox Business and social networks at the end of December.

However, analysts say that no matter how much Mr. Trump wants to do it, the idea of ​​”merging Canada into the United States” is very difficult, even impossible, to implement. Canada is America’s top ally in NATO and Washington will not be able to use force to occupy territory and annex Canada.

Although President-elect Trump says he can use America’s economic power to realize his goal of annexing Canada, ultimately eliminating the border between the two countries must still be done through legal means. .

The biggest barrier is the difference in state model, when Canada follows a constitutional monarchy, while the US is a republic.

Gregory Tardi, former legal counsel to the Canadian House of Commons, believes that if Canada wants to change from a monarchy to a republican system, Canada will have to abolish the role of the king, which can only be done by replacing the monarchy. change the constitution.

But the move would involve Article 41 of the Canada Act 1982, which requires any amendments to the constitution to be agreed to by the House of Commons, the Senate and all provincial legislatures.

“I think it’s unlikely, especially since most Canadians have always opposed secession,” Tardi said.

A recent Leger poll showed that only 13% of Canadians support the idea of ​​merging with the United States, while 82% oppose.

“The idea could take months, if not years, to negotiate. And this is not a priority for the US government. Therefore, I think the threat is not really serious and looks like a game.” more joking,” said Adam Chapnick, professor of defense studies at the Canadian Army University.

The idea may also face legal barriers from the United States itself. According to the Constitution, only Congress has the ability to authorize the United States to add new states. The vote to admit the new state needs to pass both the House and Senate, according to Matthew Lebo, a political studies professor at Western University.

However, such admission is usually reserved for territories that are already inhabited by US citizens, such as Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands, but they have not yet been recognized as a state and granted special privileges.

Many people even warn that merger could be a process that leads to bloody conflict. “I can’t think of any other way than a war to make Canada an American state,” Lebo said.

In addition, some experts warn that the merger idea could “do more harm than good” for the Republican Party. If Canada were to merge with the US, it would be the largest state and be awarded the highest number of electoral votes, possibly creating a turning point in determining future US presidential elections.

That turning point will likely bring a big advantage to the Democratic Party, because Canada’s modern political history shows that the country’s voters lean to the left. Rich Lowry, editor-in-chief of the famous conservative magazine National Review, commented that in a merger scenario, Canada would become a “green giant”, comparable to California in population size and perhaps even electoral votes for the Democratic candidate.

Veteran political scientist Wayne Lesperance agrees with this assessment. “As an American state, Canada can bring millions of voters leaning towards the Democratic Party. With 40 million people, the 51st state will be the largest state in the US and is likely to oppose Mr. Trump and his program. Republican political agenda,” Lowry said.

Democratic strategist and political analyst Van Jones expressed “very happiness” if Canada becomes a US state, because it will be a heavy blow to the Republican Party in future elections.

With the merger idea considered unfeasible, experts believe that Mr. Trump’s repeated comments are just jokes to put pressure on Canada.

“He was teasing Prime Minister Trudeau. He wanted to dominate the game and make everyone worried. But that was not a realistic threat,” Lebo said.

Others see this as Mr. Trump’s negotiating strategy, a card he uses to negotiate tariffs and border security with Canada.

“He can use tools that no one can think of. He is willing to utilize every tool at his disposal,” Dave Carney, a longtime Republican strategist, told Fox News.

Carney, a top political adviser to Texas Governor Greg Abbott, added that Mr Trump is “using the soft power of the presidency to get people’s attention and get what he wants”.