Citi survey lowers growth forecast

Economic analysts consulted by Citi Group decreased their economic growth projection for this year, moving it from 1.2 to one percent. According to the group’s survey, analysts anticipate that during 2024 the Mexican economy will have grown 1.6 percent.

If these forecasts come true, it could be said that in 2025 national activity will face a slowdown process.

According to the 2025 General Policy Criteria of the Ministry of Finance, the government expects that during 2024 the Mexican economy will have grown between 1.5 and 2.5 percent, while for the current year it expects the expansion to be between 2 and 3 percent.

For its part, the Bank of Mexico (BdeM) anticipates that growth during 2024 will be 1.6 percent, while for 2025, it projects a smaller advance of 1.2 percent.

The document presented by Citi indicates that the institution with the highest growth forecast for 2024 is Intercam, with 1.6 percent, while the most optimistic for this year is Signum Research, with 2 percent.

According to the document, of the 32 respondents, 30 expect the Bank of Mexico to make another cut to the reference rate at the February monetary policy meeting and the remaining two project it until March.

In this sense, 23 respondents expect the next cut to be a quarter of a percentage point, while eight predict a decrease of half a percentage point.

Thorne & Associates declined to speculate on the size of the cut.

By Editor