Mr. Trump’s influence on world hot spots

The year 2024 has witnessed many geopolitical upheavals around the world, with conflicts continuously breaking out in the Middle East, the war between Russia and Ukraine experiencing many fierce turning points, until the election of Donald Trump. US President and made many tough statements against both Washington’s allies and opponents.

Experts assess Mr. Trump’s return as one of the things that can create the most impact on the world in 2025. After taking office on January 20, Mr. Trump will have enough authority to carry out the commitments he made during the election campaign, as well as the unfinished agenda four years ago. Therefore, strategic competition between superpowers is forecast to heat up next year.

“Mr. Trump’s top concern in the new term is America’s geopolitical relationship with two strategic competitors, Russia and China,” said Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the Americas and Americas Program at the institute. save Chatham House in England, comment.

Mr. Trump’s personal opinion with President Valdimir Putin is an issue of concern to many people, because this will significantly impact the US stance on Ukraine conflict.

Mr. Trump pledged to end the war in Ukraine immediately after taking office and has repeatedly complained about Washington’s aid to Kiev. Many Ukrainians and European partners fear he could pressure Ukraine to make concessions to Russia in order to reach a quick ceasefire agreement.

Vinjamuri predicts that Mr. Trump will push Ukraine toward a land cession agreement for peace with Russia. However, analysts point out that the nature of negotiations is still bargaining for maximum benefits, so Ukraine will likely not easily accept terms that are too unfavorable.

For his part, President Putin does not need to rush to reach a ceasefire, when Russian forces are maintaining strong momentum across the battlefield. They are also putting significant pressure on Ukrainian units occupying part of Kursk province, aiming to completely repel these forces next year.

Therefore, Michael Froman, an analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in New York, said that despite Mr. Trump’s efforts, the Ukraine conflict will not end soon, but could escalate in the coming years. the first month of 2025. Only when one of the two sides suffers heavy blows and cannot continue to maintain the momentum of the war can a ceasefire be achieved.

The fact that Ukrainian intelligence is accused of being behind the assassination of the Commander of the Russian Defense Forces in Moscow and Mr. Putin’s threat to use Oreshnik missiles to target the “decision-making headquarters” in Kiev could also complicate matters. war situation.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s administration has just announced nearly $6 billion in military and financial aid to Ukraine in the final days of his term. These supports can help Kiev prolong the war and cope with increasing pressure from Russia.

As the fighting drags on, both sides will strive to gain more ground on the battlefield, aiming to increase their leverage and position ahead of any potential peace negotiations.

However, some experts warn that 2025 could be a challenging year for Ukraine and its allies. If Mr. Trump decides to cut off aid to Ukraine, European countries will struggle to find ways to make up for the shortfall in weapons and money support from the US.

James Nixey, director of Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Program, said it was notable that no Western leaders other than countries near the front lines called for support for Ukraine until victory. The expert said Western leaders’ belief that Ukraine cannot win a conflict with Russia could become more widespread in 2025.

Observers have repeatedly warned that a prolonged war could further increase fatigue in allied countries, as domestic political pressure could cause many countries to reduce support and aid for Ukraine. When Europe’s resources are exhausted, Ukraine may face the risk of total defeat against Russia.

Conflict in the Middle East is also a top foreign policy priority of Mr. Trump in the new term. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, said that the new US administration will orient its regional strategy around the two pillars of ensuring security for Israel and containing Iran.

Trump has long maintained strong support for Israel and will continue to prioritize its security needs, even as he plans to urge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale back military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. .

“This approach will not produce any political solution that would resolve the issue of Palestinian self-determination, but could lead to a ceasefire on terms favorable to Israel,” Vakil predicted. .

The US President-elect has also signaled his intention to resume the sanctions he imposed on Iran in 2018, after withdrawing the US from the nuclear agreement with this country. Analysts believe that Mr. Trump’s purpose is to increase pressure on Tehran to resume new negotiations on its nuclear program, as well as end weapons transfers to Russia.

Analyst Michael Froman said that in the current crisis period, Tehran will avoid provocative actions and may seek new ways to negotiate with the Trump administration. However, Froman also did not rule out the possibility that Tehran would pursue efforts to develop nuclear deterrence to ensure the country’s security.

Iranian officials recently said that Tehran has accumulated enough capacity to build nuclear weapons, and may reconsider Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s two-decade commitment not to possess destructive weapons. mass destruction.

“Iran will have to develop new deterrents and accelerate and expand its nuclear program as its ability to threaten Israel is weakened,” said Gregory Brew, senior Iran and energy analyst at the private firm consulting Eurasia Group in the US, commented.

Mr. Trump’s policy with China is forecast to have a lot of impact on the world situation in 2025, when strategic competition between the two superpowers heats up. The question is whether Mr. Trump will fulfill his commitment to increase tariffs to 60% on all Chinese imports, or will he consider this a bargaining chip with Beijing to achieve maximum benefits for Washington.

Expert Vinjamuri predicts that Mr. Trump will increase pressure on China with threats to impose tariffs, sparking a fierce “tit for tat” response from Beijing. After that, the Trump administration can proactively propose an agreement to postpone tariffs with China, in return Beijing will have to pressure Moscow to soon end the war in Ukraine.

“Such an agreement could help the relationship between China and the US somewhat achieve stability. But in the current geopolitical context, any stability may only be temporary. If we try to go In this direction, Mr. Trump may encounter some policy barriers and opposition even within the Republican Party,” Vinjamuri said.

Democratic and Republican politicians basically have a tough attitude towards China. This is a rare point of consensus between the two parties amid disagreements and divisions over the years.

Observers say that Mr. Trump’s return and the new administration’s policies related to relations with China could also affect hot spots in Asia such as the East Sea, Taiwan and North Korea.

Amid chaos in South Korea due to the political crisis following martial law, US relations with important allies in Asia also face an uncertain future, according to analysts.

“The world this year will witness many geopolitical tensions and economic challenges, testing the ability of countries as well as the international community to come up with measures to respond to common problems.” , predicted Maleeha Lodhi, former Pakistani ambassador to the US, UK and the United Nations.

In that context, Mr. Trump’s return will likely weaken the coordinated efforts of countries and international organizations to respond to common challenges, creating a leadership vacuum in the world.

“America under Mr. Trump has declared that it does not want to be a global leader,” said Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, a leading consulting group on geopolitical risks. “Mr. Trump’s team will only want regulations that benefit America and is willing to impose tariffs on anyone, until they do what America wants.”