Mauricio Macri and Cristina Kirchner play in Capital

The advancement of the local elections in CABA mobilized all the protagonists. It is the first battle of the year, on which the others depend. They fight for control of the times: in a war of life or death. Whoever loses in the CABA elections disappears from the map.

Mauricio Macri is already running a Buenos Aires candidacy. He will interrupt his vacation in Cumelén to become the Capital between Tuesday of this week and next week to discuss that nomination.

Also to attend to the succession of Luis Juez with the national senators of the PRO, who He announced that he is resigning as head of the block. He is attracted by the carancheo operation that the government undertook on the leadership of his party.

With this departure of Judge, Alfredo De Angelis from Entre Ríos is in charge of the block, and Mauricio has to hold the roof with his hands due to the relations between De Angelis and Governor Rogelio Frigerio, another patient of the carancheo operation.

The trip is justified if, in addition, it crowns with its presence a pass to the PRO of a senior official from La Libertad Avanza who seeks protection from the inclemencies to which Olivos subjects him, a carancheo, but for the other side.

It is fallow, but if it comes out it will dress Mauricio as the boss. Cristina de Kirchner already operates, also in CABA, to ensure the fate of her militants in that district and in the province of Buenos Aires. Its fate hangs on whether or not the suspension or abolition of the PASO comes out.

Peronism has a tradition of elasticity for framing that facilitates the exercise of authority without the need for a system like PASO. But it is not in their interests that in some districts there is a dispersion of Peronism in various lists.

Or that the PJ of CABA is emancipated, without STEP, from the control of the party and the candidates are chosen by a Congress controlled by leaders who are not of its observance and had their happiest days with Alberto Fernández as president.

The Buenos Aires administration of the Macri is convinced that it can obtain a clear victory in the elections for local legislators. It would allow him to inflict a defeat on the Milei-PJ tandem that aims to crush the hegemony of the PRO and its allies in the country’s glass district..

Jorge Macri tightens the schedule to take away from the national government the golden capital of this process, which is time. Opening the electoral process with a defeat for the Milei in CABA assures the Macris of survival that they can reinforce with a second victory, for which they hope that Mauricio Macri will be a candidate for national senator.

Hence the local government’s rush to give the process breakneck speed, and Olivos’ opposite need for everything to happen in rather than slow motion, frame by frame. They believe that their best chance is for the economic measures to mature that will show the green shoots – if there are any – only when spring springs again.

What the national government needs to show an electoral return that transmits sustainability over time is to have elections as late as possible. To achieve this, the repeal or suspension of the primaries is used. It would allow him to open the national polls only on October 26.

For Uspallata, on the other hand, winning an election against Milei in the first half of the year means running out of time.. The strategy of taking advantage of the firepower that gives him control of the electoral times is based on convictions that Jorge Macri’s campaigners presume to have certified by their consultants.

It appears in the report that they keep secret as an infallible tool, which concludes: 1) the voting intention towards Milei or its representatives in the CABA has a high floor of adhesions, but with a low ceiling; 2) The Macri motto (whoever it was) and its field of representation has, on the contrary, a lower floor of adhesions, but a higher ceiling than that of Milei; 3) in this equation, the CABA ruling party is positioned for a local election with a difference in favor of at least 9 points. With this perception, the Macri government is making efforts to advance the date of the local legislative elections as much as possible. If it is without STEP, the better, because they could go from July 6 – a date already set – to May 19.

In these consultations, the Milei brand extends to a range of allies among whom the only one that stands out, in terms of knowledge by the neighbors, is the name of Patricia Bullrich. The Macri brand includes a more elastic arc of better-known figures, such as Macri himself, Waldo Wolf, Laura Alonso.

The rationality of the scheme lies, according to the three consultants who contributed to this scenario of floors and ceilings, in the little enthusiasm aroused in the Capital by the slogan of “break everything” to which Mileism attributes its prosperity in other regions.

The investigation, fueled by surveys and focus groups, reveals that the resident of the district is far from the extremes and does not identify with those slogans. In any case, the majority would like to improve what is wrong, but not destroy what already exists.

Chocolate for the news. It is a perception that explains what happened in the 2023 elections. Four of the five candidates in the first round, except Myrian Bregman, expressed a moderate and open agenda without major differences between them. There were some in terms of style, with Milei exalted and extremist – 29% support – and the rest pulling towards the center. When we went to the ballot room, the rejection of the Fernandista management that embodied the Massa-Rossi formula won.

This first macrista awakened cells that seemed asleep. The most notable is Cristina de Kirchner, who reappeared in CABA at the beginning of the week to seek some definition in this war of the worlds that is the war of the times.

Peronism assumes that any division between the PRO and mileism is good for themwho resist with a unity that shields their competitive capacity, in the country where he who divides loses. They have common objectives with Mileism, and coincide in districts such as CABA, a fort on which both Alberto Fernández and Javier Milei charged from Olivos.

The two presidents have shared the agenda of suffocating the CABA by cutting funds and limiting its autonomy.. They have done so with the same enthusiasm with which the two governments cornered the Supreme Court.

Fernandism with requests for impeachment and Mileism with the scrapping that meant denying continuity to Juan Carlos Maqueda, and the threat of jibarizing the Court to the point of paralysis with the appointment of judges by decree. Macrismo has no doubts that neither with Peronism nor with Mileism will he have a second chance on earth

Cristina dedicated the week to visiting a string of leaders to consult the official position of the PJ, which she now presides over, on the government’s intention to repeal or suspend the PASO.

He has to resolve what the party will do in the two key districts where Christianity risks positions, PBA and CABA. Their idea is to reach a decision that allows the division to be protected. He fears that in some provinces Peronism will go with several lists and dissipate the key capital of unity.

If that happens it will be a setback for her management and she will bear the political cost. The situation of CABA defines a lot, due to the visibility of the district. The Macri want to repeal the local PASO, but they need the vote of Peronism to achieve it in the legislature. If that happens, without PASO the decision on the candidacies will be in the hands of the party Congress, chaired by Juan Manuel Olmos.

This leader dominates the district, along with the goalkeeper Víctor Santa María, and does not officiate at the altars of Christianity, but they have learned to live together. With the pen in their hands, the future of Christianity that Mariano Recalde represents, among others, becomes opaque.

Cristina discreetly had lunch with Olmos on Tuesday at a restaurant in the San Telmo neighborhood. As much as they need unity, they represent two different Peronisms. One is the old Kirchnerism and the other is the PJ Capital, which surrounded the presidency of Alberto Fernándezthe Buenos Aires Peronist who reached the highest, and with the help of Cristina.

Olmos and his tribe would like total control of the decisions regarding the candidates. Cristina would like to save the fate of her followers in CABA and PBA. This intention puts her in the need to negotiate with Olmos and also with Axel Kicillof. As is the case with Macri in the PRO, the most efficient way to hold on to their party authority is to be candidates for the most important positions themselves.

Macri has already warned that he is willing to play and cousin Jorge boasts it, or rather needs it, as a candidate for national senator. Cristina has not said that she is going to be a candidate, but necessity pushes her. Representative for Buenos Aires? If Kicillof’s differentiation escalates it will be essential.

But Protecting her people in CABA, the district where she has her main adversary, the PRO, could need her as a national senator.

Returning to the chamber that has been her alma mater as a legislator and vice president would give her national rank in a bloc that has always been the majority in that chamber.

It is not his district, because it is where anti-Kirchnerism was born, but in 2017 he entered Buenos Aires for the minority, which is the most he can claim in CABA.

Do you have your papers in order? Since last April he established his domicile in the district where he resided as vice president. He joked at that lunch about that eventuality in these terms: didn’t they make Jorge Macri a Buenos Aires man?

Who would be her ideal candidate for CABA? He puts his lawyer Graciana Peñafort, today a legislator, on the court. Olmos, for his part, has Claudia Neira listed to accompany him to Leandro Santoro, which is his number for national deputy or senator.

The 2025 elections are a temptation for leaders who can compete in the big leagues: Macri and Cristina, but also Elisa Carrió that, in alliance or not with the Buenos Aires PRO, has committed to ensuring the governability of Jorge Macri.

The vote to suspend the PASO; If Peronism joins in, it could be approved by 49 votes. The session will occur in the first week of February, but the Peronist vote depends on the negotiations between Olmos and Cristina.