The Union’s lead falls in the survey, with the SPD and AfD in second place

Around a month before the federal election, a YouGov survey shows the Union’s lead narrowing slightly, while the SPD is catching up and moving into second place alongside the AfD. The CDU and CSU fell by two percentage points to 28 percent compared to the previous weekas the institute’s representative survey of 1,858 eligible voters revealed. The AfD also loses two points and ends up at 19 percent. The SPD gains one point and is now also at 19 percent.

The Greens have gained one point to currently 15 percent, their highest YouGov value since April 2024. There is no movement among the smaller parties on the Sunday question: the BSW is currently in the Bundestag with 6 percent, the FDP and the Left are out with 4 percent each.

This would be enough for a coalition between the Union and the SPD, but not for a coalition between the Union and the Greens. Other purely mathematically possible options are virtually impossible politically.

However, election surveys are generally subject to uncertainty, for example due to weakening party loyalty and increasingly short-term voting decisions. The data collected only shows the opinion at the time of the survey and is not a prediction of the election outcome. In recent surveys by other institutes, the Union was at 29 to 31 percent, the SPD at 16 and the AfD at 19 to 21.5 percent.

One in three is still undecided

Almost a third of those eligible to vote have not yet made a final decision. 30 percent of all eligible voters surveyed responded accordingly to YouGov.

According to the survey, these undecided people obviously have several motivations. 79 percent of them do not feel adequately represented by any party. 75 percent would like to wait and see further developments. 70 percent do not feel informed enough. Only 40 percent say that the positions of the parties are too similar to make a decision; for 45 percent this is not the case.