After a slip of the deficit in 2024 “never seen in 40 years”, Moscovici pleads for the independence of forecasts

A dizzying road trip. “I have never seen in 40 years a year like 2024”, when the public deficit has largely slipped, launched Thursday on BFMTV and RMC the first president of the Court of Auditors, Pierre Moscovici, deploring “too optimistic forecasts” . He pleaded for macroeconomic growth forecasts to be “independent”, to preserve them from “political hubris”, as he had already proposed the day before to the National Assembly.

Initially planned for 4.4 % of GDP (gross domestic product) in the fall of 2023, the public deficit should finally be 6.1 %, a figure which will be confirmed at the end of March, far above 3 % tolerated by the European Union. “As the forecasts were too high, we did not have the same level of revenue, far from it. The palpate machine, or to estimate the recipes broke, “held the former Minister of the Economy on BFMTV and RMC, also pointing” a level of expenditure too high “.

“We take our desires for realities”

However, he assured that there was “no form of insincerity” or “desire to deceive” in the attitude of the Minister of the Economy at the time, Bruno Le Maire. But “forecasts must be careful,” he said. “If you are too proactive, optimistic, you fall into the Hubris, you take your desires for realities,” insisted the number 1 of the Court of Auditors. To prevent such a scenario from happening again, he recommended “to remove the validation of forecasts from policies and administrations, to entrust it to an independent body”, a “general interest” solution according to him.

Pierre Moscovici had already defended it the day before, before the deputies of the commission of inquiry of the National Assembly on the causes of the slip of the public deficit. He had pleaded for an enlargement of the perimeter of the High Council of Public Finance (HCFP), an organization which he chairs, or for the establishment of another device responsible for taking charge of macroeconomic forecasts, in order to avoid that Bercy is not too “alone” in this exercise. A observation also posed last week before this same commission by the director general of INSEE, Jean-Luc Tavernier.

“The independence of forecasts must be better guaranteed”

“Some unpleasant surprises were difficult to predict. Undoubtedly (…) But it is impossible, I repeat, impossible to pretend in all conscience that no one knew the repeated fragility of forecasts during this period, “said the president of the Court of Auditors, who was auditioned in the context of work led on the subject for the 1920s and 2024.

He repeated that he had “alerted” on several occasions on “the optimistic nature of almost all of the government forecasting positions for the year 2024”, in particular the growth forecast, which “was undoubtedly and very significantly too optimistic”, Without these signals having “been heard”.

Finally get out of two “dark years”

On BFMTV and RMC, Pierre Moscovici has also returned to the slopes to take up the bar now, and the challenges awaiting the current government of François Bayrou, who wishes to bring the deficit back to 5.4 % in 2025, with the objective of Return under the 3 % ceiling set by Brussels in 2029.

After the last two years, “dark years” in terms of public finances, the president of the Court of Auditors noted in particular the “major problem” of public debt, which now counts for “some 110 % of GDP “And whose reimbursement will represent” the first budgetary position of the State “in three years.

“The recovery is now,” he insisted, calling for “a budget, quickly”, which is “effort budget” but not “austerity”. He said he received a copy of the government overnight on this subject, but not still had time to study it. This does not prevent him from placing a few tracks, recommending above all to “save more than taxes”. “You have to make certain taxes (…) but do not load the mule. On the other hand, saving money on public spending, “he recommended.