Putin’s bet, Cremlin dreams of Ukrainian ‘betrayed’ by Trump

Vladimir Putin wants to treat only with Donald Trump to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, Moscow hopes that time playing in his favor: the more the conflict expands, with the ‘milestone’ of the 3 years now close, the more – according to the Kremlin – the possibilities of a hallway of the West increase. And Kiev, according to Putin, without American weapons he cannot resist more than a month or two.

It is the picture that the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), American Think Tank that monitors the war daily, outlines by analyzing not only the field operations but also the one that takes place at the Kremlin. Putin, according to ISW, “continues to commit to forcing Donald Trump to bilateral negotiations that exclude Ukraine and to impose his negotiating framework to the President of the United States”.

Putin’s goal: treat only with Trump

Putin’s latest statements “are part of a continuous effort to position themselves as a tump equal and strengthen its longtime conviction that Russia is the great heir power of the Soviet Union. Putin’s words also establish the conditions for Russia to violate any future peace agreement with Ukraine That Trump could hope to mediate and are a further indication that the Russian president is not interested in compromising on his requests for a complete change of regime and the paralysis of the Ukrainian army as conditions for peace “.

“Putin’s efforts also want to force the West – underlines the American Think Tank – to recognize”, as Moscow claims, “the illegitimacy of the current Ukrainian government and a lasting Ukrainian state”. The ISW has previously observed that “western acceptance regarding all the requests of Russia in Ukraine would require the West to recognize and accept that the current Ukrainian government is illegitimate and that an identity and a Ukrainian state independent of Russia does not exist Currently and/or they do not deserve to exist in the future “.

“Putin’s statements that reject the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government and a possible future peace agreement – continues American analysts – establish the conditions for Russia to justify the violation of any future agreement with Ukraine. Even if Zelensky or other parts of the Ukrainian government accepted to revoke the decree prohibiting the negotiations with Putin, the Russian president would probably violate any peace agreement or other agreement that he reached with Ukraine with the false justification that these agreements are ‘not valid’ as long as he believes he can be able to achieve its war goals through military operations “.

The ISW analysis also focuses on Putin’s recent declaration, according to which Western military assistance remains vital for Ukraine’s ability to maintain its defense against Russian aggression.

Putin gave an interview with the journalist Pavel Zarubin in which he said the war in Ukraine could end up within two months if the West stops providing Ukraine military assistance and that the dependence of Ukraine on western military aid indicates that the ‘Ukraine “has no sovereignty”.

“Putin’s statements on how quickly the war will end without further western military assistance and its explicit refusal of Ukrainian sovereignty – comments the Institute – are part of the long -term information operations of the Kremlin aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine and to discourage further western military assistance “.

“Putin’s theory of victory is based on the assumption that the West will abandon Ukraine – concludes ISW – and only an unshakable western support and a constant supply of military assistance in Kiev can force Putin to abandon his theory and accept The need to offer the necessary concessions for any resolution of the acceptable conflict for the United States, Europe and Ukraine “. According to the Institute, “only the United States can provide Kiev with some critical weapons and military equipment on the scale, speed and regularity necessary for the defense of Ukraine against Russia, and western officials have recently proposed that European states always contribute to More to finance US military assistance at Ukraine “.