Will the US president comply Donald Trump Your threat of imposing tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products this Saturday? The question is on everyone’s mouth this Friday, and the consequences could be serious for the three countries.
Trump, who returned to the White House just 11 days ago, announced its intention to impose 25% tariffs on the products of Canada and Mexico February 1.
These two countries are theoretically protected by the Free Trade Agreement T-MEC signed in 2020, during the first mandate of the Republican. But that only in theory.
On Thursday the tycoon declared that he would decide overnight whether or not he exempts oil tariffs produced in these two countries.
From this Saturday it also plans to submit Chinese products to a tax of 10%. In addition, on Thursday he reiterated his Threats of imposing “100%” tariffs on the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa ..) If they avoid the use of the dollar in their international exchanges.
According to Oxford Economics, if the US economy did, it would lose 1.2 percentage points of growth, and Mexico could plunge into a recession.
For Wendong Zhang, professor at Cornell University, although the clash would not be so great for the United States, it would undoubtedly be for the other two countries.
“In that scenario, Canada and Mexico can expect their GDP to contract 3.6% and 2% respectively, and the United States 0.3%,” he said.
“China would also suffer from an escalation in the existing commercial war, but at the same time it would benefit (of the tensions between the United States), Mexico and Canada,” he adds.
Campaign threat
During the campaign, the republican candidate said that he wanted to impose customs rights from 10% to 20% to all imported products in the United Statesand even from 60% to 100% to those from China.
The goal at that time was to economically compensate the tax cuts that I also wanted to apply during his mandate.
Since won the elections the tone has changed.
Instead of a tool to compensate for the fall in fiscal entries, tariffs have become, as they were during their first mandate, in A weapon that wields to force negotiations and obtain concessions.
Donald Trump explained that tariffs were an response to the inability of their neighbors to stop drug flow, particularly fentanyl, and migrants to the United States.
His candidate for Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, described him as a “internal policy act” during his audience in the Senate.
“These tariffs are simply designed to push them to close their borders,” he insisted. “It is a special tariff, designed to push them to act.”
The Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, was quite optimistic on Wednesday: “We do not believe it will happen, the truth. And if it happens, we also have our plan.” This Friday, he reiterated that his government has “a plan A, a plan B and a C Plan” if the chief of the White House meets his threat.
Uncertainty in Mexico and Canada
This does not remove concern, especially for the agricultural sector, which exports a large part of its products to the United States.
“Almost 80% of our exports go to the United States And, in any case, anything that may cause a clash is a matter of concern, “Juan Cortina, president of the National Agricultural Council of Mexico, told AFP Tuesday.
On the Canadian side, the possibility of tariffs served to accentuate the political crisis that already the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who ended up resigning.
The Canadian Public Security Minister David McGuinty, was on Thursday in Washington to present the master lines of the plan to reinforce security at the border between Canada and the United States.
Howard Lutnick was very clear on Tuesday: “I know they move fast,” he said referring to the two countries. “If they do the right thing, there will be no tariffs.”
This situation reminds tensions between Washington and Bogotá last weekend, when Colombia initially refused to allow the landing of military airplanes with expelled migrants.
The American president then announced a series of sanctions, including 25% tariff migrants