From this Monday, The Government will bet on the combination of a strengthened exchange anchor with attractive interest ratesif measured in dollars, to inaugurated a New phase of the economic programwhile negotiating a new agreement with the Monetary Fund. As reported by the Central Bank in the middle of last month, Since February, Santiago Bausuli will run to the official exchange rate of 1% monthly, as a strategy to accelerate the decrease in inflation.
This New exchange rate It will align with a new scenario of reference rates, which will seek to maintain the attractiveness of investments in pesos and morigize the pressures in the gap and in the reserves of the Central Bank. All this, in the anteroom of an election year, where, as the government explained and also read the City operators, the official intention is Keep the situation when On the exchange front.
“The government decided to give it a Final Stay of Inflation With the announcement of passing the devaluation rate of the peso against the dollar from 2% to 1% monthly, “said Ieral Economist Jorge Vasconcelos. At the same time, he added:” For political reasons, this would be the government-objective scenario-objective , but, in economic terms, it is already known that The “exchange anchor” is not “almighty” as an instrumentthat the evolution of supply and aggregate demand needs to be consistent so that serious imbalances are not originated on the road and, above all, that expectations accompany: the demand for money should continue to recover at a good pace so that the main variables fit each other”.
On Thursday at the last minute, the Central Bank announced a 300 basic points cut the monetary policy rate, which although it was lower than the market expected, can look aggressive. So The reference rate will run this month to the rate of 2.4%, while the dollar will move to 1%. And this rate differential is what will ultimately hold a good part of the strategy.
“Despite the rate of fees, the spread tasa-crawl more that will double the deceleration of the rhythm of devaluation of 2% to 1% monthly. Precisely, it will improve 0.66 percentage points of TEM to 1.41 percentage points since Monday, The highest level since 05/14“, explained in PPI.” Given this remarkable widening of the Spread, it will return attractive to the Carry of Exporters and Importers, which would result in an acceleration of the BCRA Purchase Rhythm, “they added.
In this same line, in the LCG consultancy they explained: “This raises the exporters incentives to borrow in dollars to make rate in pesos, fact that adds to the already announced momentary with retentions. In parallel, the BCRA is “benefited” from the increase in the offer in the spot (and the CCL from the still validity of the Blend), which probably promotes the diminished purchases of recent weeks and subtract pressure from the intervention on the intervention on the parallels “. The Central Bank ended January with purchases for US $ 1,748 million. While it is the highest result since May 2024, the purchase rhythm decreased significantly in the second half of the month.
In this regard, in Aurum values they affirmed: “The exchange scheme held by the government and that probably tries to keep up to the elections In addition to relying on the exchange rate (which helps sustain the demand for weights), it required a reset via a very strong adjustment of the rate to pesos measured in dollars to hold the Carry. “
In the consultant they pointed out that LAs new rates for those who make the famous “financial bicycle” are “extremely high” and anticipated the effects of this strategy. “Although for the commercial carry (and eventually for the financial carry if financial dollars are also controlled) this can be speculatively positive, The cost of indebtedness of the treasure measured in dollars Via Lefi or Lecaps will shoot again after having experienced some moderation in the previous three months, “they said.
“This decision would seem to confirm that the Government will consolidate the exchange scheme at the expense of increasing the appreciation of the weight seeking to accumulate reservations via a very high prize for which currency liquidates or stops demanding them (anticipation of expos, postponement of impossible). In this Context The durability of the exchange scheme would seem to have its luck increasingly tied to the Carry Award, “they added.