Trump’s commercial war would make a scary destruction of the European economy – “There is a good reason to be afraid”

Donald Trump has been President of the United States for two weeks. Is Trump a threat or an opportunity for Finnish companies, Timo Vuori, Director of Trade Policy at EK?

“The pre -estimates were true. Trump is still an unpredictable decision maker. Trump is also well prepared for the second season. He is an opportunity for Finnish companies if he gets the US economy to grow strong. But he is a threat if he lights up trade and causes uncertainty in the world, economy and security. ”

If Trump puts duties on the EU, how would the EU answer? Are there any new ones?

“Certainly will come. The EU has also learned from Trump’s first season, and newcomer lists have already been prepared. The EU is trying to target newcomers to areas and products that do not hit the EU’s competitiveness. ”

“At the same time, the EU is talking about trying to get a positive agenda with Trump. That is, counter offers are made. It is proposed, though, to be able to make a market dealership between the EU and the US, and thus to dismantle trade barriers and harmonize regulation. This would also be good news for Finland. ”

What about China? What impacts would up to 60 % import duties on world trade?

“60 % duty would be a severe blow to China’s exports to the United States. The goods and services from China’s overproduction could go to other markets and it would be easily here in Europe, so Europe should react again. Here is the place of the spark of the trade war. ”

What kind of Finnish companies would the EU -US trade war be most harmful?

“If public duties come, then they will target about 3,400 companies that directly take you to the United States from Finland. It has been said that the automotive industry, the pharmaceutical industry, the chemistry industry and the steel industry could be the ones on which Trump puts entries in the EU. By the beginning of April, Trump’s group has promised to tell you what kind of customs measures it will go to from different countries. ”

According to Trump, duties can bring thousands of billions of dollars to the United States. Is Trump’s financial actions really good to be afraid?

“There is a need to fear them because duties increase costs and then inflation. And duties usually pay for the end customer, and in this case it is usually found in America. “

What did the full trade war mean for European economic growth?

“First of all, the negative effects on GDP in Europe would be half, one percent. If the trade war was prolonged and continued for two years, then it will start talking about the negative effect of 2.0-2.5 %. ”

According to Risto Ej Penttilä, CEO of Nordic West Office, the world is returning to the politics dominated by the Great powers. What does this mean for Finnish export companies?

“It means a certain amount of uncertainty in the economy and trading, because old and traditional rules of international trade on healthy competition and state subsidies are no longer complying with.”

“The store is also blocking and there may be customs walls or other restrictions on trade, which has to think about how to decentralize business risks and modify production and supply chains.”

The video interview has been done before there was information on the placement of customs. On Friday night Finnish time became a confirmation that the US will set duties To Mexico, Canada and China.

Update at 7.21am: Modified text for outdated information and added information about the number of enthusiasts on Mexico, Canada and China.