American farmers stood still because of the ghost of the battle

The United States has just gone through a volatile week on trade policies. President Trump on 1/2 signed a 10% tax order for all imported goods from China and 25% for most items from Canada and Mexico from February 4 if these countries did not strongly prevent people from importing people. Cu and Fentanyl illegally enter the US.

After the negotiations, the White House owner on February 3 announced the postponement of Canadian and Mexico taxpayer for 30 days. For China, as soon as the tax order is effective, the country has launched the same blow to respond to the United States, applied from February 10.

A series of developments made many American farmers worried. Aaron Lehman, planting soybean in Iowa, is preparing for the impact from a warrior that he thinks will significantly affect the corn belt – the Midwestern region stretches to the South America, where the agricultural industry is. dominating karma.

“Farmers understand that trade relations ‘go up by stairs’, that is, to make efforts to build, but ‘go down with elevators’ – very fast,” Lehman said at the farm, how to play the capital Des Minde more than 30 km north. “The long -term impact is that countries in the world will no longer consider us as a reliable partner.”

Canada, Mexico and China are the buyers about half of the US export agricultural turnover. In 2024, the US sold more than $ 30 billion in agricultural products to Mexico, US $ 29 billion to Canada and $ 26 billion to China, according to statistics from the US Farm Department.

Therefore, American farmers, especially the Midwest, are facing a big risk if the trading partner applies. And even if the tax measures are suspended at the last minute, the image of the US in the eyes of important trading partners has been damaged.

“From ‘the seller was chosen by the buyer because of their favorite’, we became ‘the seller they were forced to choose because there was no other plan,'” Mark Mueller, a farmer near Waterloo, northeastern Iowa.

Iowa supported Mr. Trump strongly in all three seasons of election 2016, 2020 and 2024. Agriculture sector contributed more than 20%, about 53.1 billion USD, for Iowa GDP. This state is the largest producer of corn, pork, eggs, ethanol, third in terms of soybean production. This means that Iowa is especially vulnerable if US agricultural exports decline.

“Freedom of trade is the backbone of the Economic Midwest,” Ernie Goss, the economist at the University of Crreighton, Nebraska, said. “We have agriculture with the highest production in the world, while the domestic market is not enough to absorb. It is necessary to have a foreign market.”

Anxiety also appeared in Mississippi, the state of South America rice belt. Agriculture contributes about $ 9 billion per year to the economy of Mississippi, equivalent to about 1/5 GDP state.

Mike McCormick, Chairman of the Mississippi Farm Federation, warned that agriculture would be the first industry to catch the blow from any trade stress between the United States and important partners. “The farmer suffered the most serious damage. They were the first and longest injury group if we were involved in wounded,” he said.

The three largest trading partners of Mississippi Agriculture are also Canada, Mexico and China.

“Fortunately, I think the president has put pressure on Canada and Mexico, forcing them to make concessions,” McCormick said, adding that his federation was closely monitoring the situation.

The risk of trade war appeared amid the difficult US farmers, the selling price decreased and the input costs increased. The net income of US farmers in 2022 was 181.9 billion USD and decreased by 23% to US $ 140.7 billion in 2024, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.

“The trade war is at risk of a very bad time,” said Rick Juchems, a farmer near Plainfield, northeast of Iowa. According to the Iowa Wu Growing Farmers’ Association, many people are suffering from a loss of $ 250 per hectare. Investing in agricultural machinery also decreased.

The financial prospect of the agriculture industry is even more gloomy if Mr. Trump imposed tax as committed. Fertilizers will be much more expensive, because more than 80% of American potassium supply from Canada. Another problem is that the tariff instability takes place right before the spring.

“We can adjust if we know what is coming,” Juchems said. “But everything is constantly fluctuating. I’m sure the whole world is laughing at us.”

A series of threats of President Trump’s taxpayer recalled the memory of the trade war he launched in 2018, in the first term. The most notable move is to impose taxes with US $ 300 billion in Chinese goods imported into the United States. China applied taxes on American goods, including a series of agricultural products such as soybeans, beef, pork, wheat, corn and vermicelli.

Tensions cool down when the two sides signed a trade agreement in 2020, China pledged to increase the purchase of US goods and services. But after that, China aims to increase the purchase of agricultural products from Argentina and Brazil. The two countries overtake the US, becoming the largest corn supplier for China by 2023.

In the previous warrior, “many of our customers in Asia have established relations with soybean producing countries in South America. They increasingly occupy our market share,” said Lehman, President of Lien Lien, Iowa farmer delegation. “And we still can’t regain it.”

Not all objected to Mr. Trump using tariffs to achieve important policy goals.

“It was the strategy he needed to use to force those countries to sit at the negotiating table,” Steve Kuiper, a farmer growing maize and soybean at Marion County, Southwest Des Moine. “After all, a president also has only 4 years of his term to fulfill his promise, so he needs to immediately embark on work.”

Lehman said the Iowa farmers tried to be optimistic. “They hope officials will keep the cold head and the dispute will turn into good trade agreements,” Lehman said. “But they still prepare for the worst scenario.”