What Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum mean

Coming 3. Recession?

For WIFO economists Harald Oberhofer, Trump’s customs plans are “economically a high-risk game”. With a total of weak exports, the United States was the largest growth market for Austria’s export -oriented companies last year. The risk of a real trade war between the EU and the USA can further burden weak economic growth in Austria.

For this year – without a savings package and without a trade conflict – growth of only 0.6 percent is expected. Each additional damper is therefore poison and could lead to the third recession in a row.

With aluminum, the dependence of the USA From imports even greater than with steel. Around half of the entire aluminum must be introduced. The vast majority of You havethe world’s largest aluminum exporter. To Canada, the United Arab Emirates (VAE) And China.

If the tariffs are more likely to import imports, US companies and ultimately consumers must expect higher prices, which inflation could heat up in the United States. The other part of the US tariffs would have to shoulder foreign exporters, i.e. in their prizes if they want to stay in the USA in the USA. How specifically a company is affected depends on many factors.

An example: Deutschland is the largest stahlexporter in Europe, but 80 percent of exports go to the EU. It is therefore not surprising that Germany’s largest steel producer, Thyssenkrupp says that the US tariffs will “only have a very limited influence” on their own business. Because you only deliver high -quality products to the USA, have a very good market position there and also your own production on site. The majority of the income generated in the States comes from the US trade business and from the Thyssen car delivery division.

A transatlantic free trade agreement has moved far away

Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz and France’s president Emmanuel Macron If EU countermeasures have already announced, Trump should make his threats come true. In 2018 there was already punitive tariffs on steel and aluminum from Europe in 2018.

Europe reacted with compensation tariffs to jeans, motorcycles from Harley-Davidson, peanut butter or whiskey. First Joe Biden Peased the tariffs in 2021 and since then a kind of standstill agreement has been in effect. However, a permanent dispute settlement did not succeed – as it is now evident. A transatlantic free trade agreement has also been considered again and again, but has now moved far away again.

In the markets, investors are already dulled as far as the tariffs are concerned. There were no excessive negative reactions, most of the European stock exchanges were in plus on Monday. The Voest lost 1.9 percent in the course of the Thyssenkrupp shares by 0.35 percent, competitor Salzgitter was even easy to grow.

The strongest impact is the gold price. The precious metal continued on Monday and reached a record high at $ 2,906.