2024 YR4: How the Earth is prepared for the possible impact of an asteroid

The probabilities that this 2024 YR4 asteroid, discovered in December, impact the earth on December 22, 2032 have increased to 3.1%, NASA reported on Tuesday, the greatest probability of impact of such a large space rock on the History of modern prediction. Although it should be noted that only one day later they reduced these possibilities to only 1.5%.

“They do not fall into panic,” said Richard Moissl, head of the Planetary Defense Office of the European Space Agency (ESA), AFP.

As astronomers collect more data, it is expected that the probability of a direct impact will increase before descending rapidly to zero.

However, even in the unlikely case that probability continues to increase to 100%, “we are not helpless,” Moissl emphasized.

Next, some of the ways in which humanity could divert or destroy asteroid 2024 YR4.

Hit a probe against the asteroid

Only a planetary defense strategy has been tested in a real asteroid.

In 2022, NASA’s double asteroid (Dart) redirection test deliberately impacted a probe against asteroid Dimorphos, 160 meters wide, managing to alter its orbit around the asteroid Didymos, almost 800 meters in diameter.

An advantage of this plan is that multiple impact probes could be launched against asteroid 2024 YR4 and observe how each changes its career, explained Bruce Betts, chief scientist of the non -profit organization Planetary Society.

It is estimated that the asteroid measures between 40 and 90 meters wide, approximately half the size of Dimorphos.

“You have to be careful not to exaggerate,” Moissl warned since if the probe partially destroyed the asteroid, that could generate fragments that in turn could also go to Earth, he added.

Gravitational Tractor, You Makes of Iones and Painting

Another idea is the “gravitational tractor”, which It consists of sending a large mass ship near the asteroid and, without touching it, using its gravitational attraction to remove it from the earth.

Another contactless strategy would be to place a ship near the asteroid with propellants that emit a “constant ion flow” to push it out of its course, according to Moissl.

Scientists have also considered spraying white paint on one side of the asteroid, increasing their reflectivity to change their career slowly driven by the solar wind.

These more subtle strategies would require reaching the asteroid more in advance than other more drastic options.

The nuclear option

Another possibility is simply destroying it with a nuclear bomb.

Instead of drilling the asteroid to insert a nuclear bomb – as in the science fiction film “Armageddon” (1998) -,, The explosion would occur near the asteroid.

Last year, American researchers tested this theory with a simulated asteroid the size of a marble in the laboratory. They discovered that the X -rays of the nuclear explosion would vaporize its surface, pushing it in the opposite direction.

However, beyond the ethical, political and legal dilemmas of sending nuclear weapons to space, this is an extreme option designed for kilometers wide, such as the one that extinguished dinosaurs.

In addition, a nuclear explosion could again fragment the asteroid in unpredictable pieces that would continue to be a danger to the earth.

Lasers

A similar but less dangerous line is to shoot laser rays to vaporize one side of the asteroid and push it out of its trajectory.

Laboratory experiments suggest that this strategy is viable, although it is not one of the main options considered, according to Betts.

If everything else fails …

If necessary, diverting this asteroid would be “feasible, but it depends on the speed with which we act as a planet,” said Moissl.

Although experts and space agencies will make their recommendations, the final decision on how to address the threat will fall on world leaders.

If everything fails, the asteroid impact zone would be known precisely, which is not a “planetary murderer” and,, In the worst case, I would threaten a city, Moissl said.

This means that the last defense line would be to prepare for the impact, which could include evacuations if the area were populated.

“Seven and a half years means a lot of time to prepare,” Moissl concluded, emphasizing that there is still a 97% chance that the asteroid does not impact the earth.