Germany on the way to a decision: But the future looks particularly gray

This Sunday, about 59.2 million-out of 84 million Germans-can vote in the general election against a political, economic and social crisis. The polls predict a victory for the moderate right -wing party, but warn of significant difficulties in assembling the future coalition.

The early elections were determined after the government’s disintegration led by Chancellor Olaf Schultz last November, against the backdrop of disagreements on economics and dealing with the recession.

A split political map and a government railway challenge

According to a last survey published yesterday (Friday) in Bloomberg, Friedrich MarchThe German Christian-Democratic Party (CDU) leader, leads in surveys with about 30%support, followed by the extreme right-wing party “Alternative to Germany” (AFD) with about 20%, Schultz’s Social Democratic Party with 15%, 13%.

However, as is well known, there is a deep political split between East Germany and its western side. According to an examination of the ecoomist, in East Germany, the AFD leads at 45 out of 48 election provinces, while in the west of the CDU controls 220 out of 247 provinces, as it are Germany is one country but two peoples.

Another interesting distinction on which the “economist” voters in relation to the upcoming elections is the age gap in voter preferences: While voters over the age of 75 are clearly tend to support the traditional parties, young people under 30 disperse the smaller parties, with no party to be more than 20% support Among this age group.

The real complexity in the elections that will be held on Sunday lies in the question of how many of the small parties will be able to go through the blocking percentage in Germany, which stands at 5%.

Three parties are on the border: the Free Democratic Party (FDP), the pro-Russian (BSW) alliance, and the Di Linke (Diel Linke-“Left”) known as a radical and blood-socialist. According to the predictions, there is a 37% chance that Frederick March will not be able to assemble a double-party coalition and will be required to a triple partnership, so that beyond the small parties is a significant component.

The election process

The polls will open on Sunday at eight in the morning and close at six in the evening (German watch). Germans can also vote through the mail vote, but the voice must reach the polls. 29 parties are dealing with these elections, with four major candidates competing for the Chancellor’s role: Olaf Schultz Missing, Friedrich March of the Christian-Democratic Union, Robert the dust From the Greens, Valis Weidel From the alternative to Germany.

First results are expected as soon as the polling stations are closed, and the official final results are expected on Monday morning. According to a number of foreign media sources, the government train process is expected to continue at least until mid -April.

The issues on the agenda: The Immigration and Security crisis and the economic challenge

The voltage around the issue of immigration in the political arena in Germany peaked last month, when an Afghan asylum seeks an attacker with a group of kids in a kindergarten in the city of Ashpanburg (Aschaffenburg) in Bavaria.

In the assault, a two -year -old boy was killed and a guest. According to UN data, Germany currently hosts more than 2.5 million asylum seekers, of which about a million refugees who came Ukraine. A public opinion polls show that about 70% of the German public believes the state absorbs too many immigrants, which reduces the voting percentages to the parties with policy Maches around the immigrant question and asylum seekers.

According to Associated Press, experts speculate that this is one of the most urgent challenges to face the new German government.

In addition to the immigration crisis, Germany is dealing with a complex economic crisis. According to Wall Street Journal, the industry in Germany has experienced a 10% retreat since 2021, and up to 20% in energy-intensive industries. In addition, the 29.9% corporate tax rate is the third height in Europe, and the burdensome regulation – the EU has approved 13,000 new regulations between 2019-2024, compared with 5,500 in the US – makes it difficult for it to recover financially.

20% in energy -intensive industries. The 29.9% corporate tax rate is the third height in Europe, and the burdensome regulation – the EU has approved 13,000 new regulations between 2019-2024, compared to 5,500 in the US – makes it difficult to recover.

International implications

As the second -largest weapon supplier to Ukraine, after the US (at least until now, we will see what the quarrel is between Donald Trump to Volodomir Zlansky), And as the main power in the EU, the new government will be central to designing European policy with the American and Russian government.

The political instability in Germany comes at a particularly sensitive timing: France, Germany’s traditional partner in the EU, also faces internal political instability. In addition, Germany is dealing with double pressure: on the one hand, the threat of Trump’s lids, and on the other hand requirements to increase the defense budget in view of the Russian threat.