5 conclusions of the German elections

Its current leader will leave power, but its party will probably remain in office with a reduced capacity.

And Trump’s government efforts by influence vote They don’t seem to have served much.

Sunday’s elections, which were held months earlier than expected after the country’s ruling coalition collapsed at the end of last year, some surprises and a lot of suspense produced.

Late in the afternoon in Berlin, it was not clear if the next government would be another unstable tripartite issue, such as the one that crumbled last autumn, or a return to the most durable bipartisan governments that had directed Germany during most of the majority of This century.

Five conclusions of the results.

The greatest German participation in decades gave the majority of the votes to the Christian Democrats of Centrodécha and their Brother Party, the Christian Social Union.

That means almost certain that the next chancellor will be Friedrich Merzan entrepreneur that flies on his own private plane and who has long covered the highest position.

Merz lost a struggle to be able to lead Christian Democrats in the early 2000s, before Angela Merkelwho came to perform 16 years as Chancellor.

However, voters disappointed their legacy, including an unfortunate plan to depend more on Russia for natural gas and the decision to keep Germany’s borders open in 2015 and begin to receive what would be millions of refugees from Syria, Afghanistan and other places.

After Christian Democrats fell from power in 2021, Merz assumed the leadership of the party and took him right in migration and other issues.

He felt more comfortable campaigning for the economy, promising to eliminate regulations and reduce taxes in an attempt to reactivate economic growth.

Merz is high already severe, with a dry ingenuity.

The surveys suggest that only around one third of the country believes that it will be a good chancellor.

Even some of their own voters said Sunday that they are not in love with him.

But if you can quickly forge a government, you have the opportunity to occupy a void of leadership in Europe while fighting with tensions in their relationship with the United States under President Donald Trump.

When the vice president JD Vance He spoke a speech at the Munich Security Conference last week rebuking the European political establishment for excluding extremist parties, suddenly woke up the electoral campaign, which was previously numb.

If Trump’s threats from a commercial war and a lower military protection had already been worried about the Germans, the speech and subsequent turn of the president about Ukraine caused almost panic In Germany.

Among German voters, 65% are concerned that Germany is helpless against Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putinaccording to a survey published on Sunday afternoon.

On Sunday night, in a debate after the elections between leaders, Merz quickly mentioned the threat facing Germany and Europe due to the new US administration.

“It has been clear that Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this government, is largely indifferent to the destiny of Europe,” he said.

“I am very curious to see how we address the NATO summit at the end of June, if we are still talking about NATO in its current state or if we need to establish an independent European defense capacity much faster.”

The extreme right party Alternative for Germany, Or AFD, doubled its percentage of votes compared to four years ago, largely appealing to voters annoying immigration.

In the former East Germany, he finished first, ahead of Merz’s game.

However, AFD’s percentage of votes seemed below its highest support point in surveys a year ago.

Many analysts expected a stronger result, after a sequence of events that raised the game and its main theme.

AFD received public support from Vance and the support of Trump’s billionaire advisor, Elon Musk.

The party tried to get political benefit from a series of mortal attacks by immigrants in recent months, even in the last days of the campaign.

But that benefit never materialized.

The reaction to recent attacks and the support of Trump officials may even have mobilized a late wave of support for Die Linke, the Extreme Left party of Germany, which campaigned on a Pro Immigration platform, some voters suggested in interviews in interviews Sunday.

Two months ago, Die Linke was dying.

Sahra Wagenknecht, his most popular member, founded a new game last year that was more friendly with Russia and harder with immigration.

Many followed her, thinking that she was the future.

Die Linke languished in 3%.

But Die Linke managed to change things in just a few months, thanks to a new pair of charismatic leaders and social media experts and the distancing that many young voters feel with traditional parties.

The party reached what seemed to be almost 9% of the votes and more than 60 seats in Parliament.

Their campaign acts began to attract so many young people who became unmissable events, both danceable parties and political mythines.

Party leaders became stars from social networks.

Heidi Reichinnek, who is attributed a large part of the change, told a crowd on Sunday night that their success owed the many volunteers who went to the door talking with people about pocket issues.

Reichinnek told their supporters that “they did everything well.”

Although the surveys predicted that it would end in third place, the chancellor Olaf Scholz He insisted until the end that he would somehow retain his position.

His social democratic party obtained a historical minimum of 16%, being third. Although Scholz will continue as an interim chancellor until Merz lends an oath, he is expected to retire from active policy.

However, his party will remain alive.

It is very likely to descend to the family of minor partner in a government led by conservatives.

The so -called “great coalition” supported Merkel for three of his four mandates, and could be Merz’s best bet for a stable government at a tumultuous moment for Germany.

c.2025 The New York Times Company