The Russian Shadow Fleet offers an advantage to the West, says an expert

Senior Advisor to the Bank of Finland Laura Solanko He estimates that the Western countries can, if they so wish, turn the Russian Shadow Fleet in the Baltic Sea.

At the same time, the shadow ship also makes it difficult to implement sanctions, increase the risk of accidents and increase opportunities for illegal activities.

Solanko reminds on his blogthat Russian oil exports encourage Russian oil companies to remove oil transport from Western shipping companies and from Western insurance.

“However, the goal of sanctions is not to deny or even reduce Russian oil exports. Sanctions set by Western countries (G7 countries and the European Union) prohibit insurers, ports, shipping companies or financiers from providing services to ships only if the cargo purchase price exceeds the set price ceiling, ”Solanko points out.

The price ceiling The price cap of the crude oil is $ 60 for barrels and the oil products $ 45 or $ 100 barrel. The challenge of the price ceiling is that it can be difficult to verify the actual purchase price, especially if all parties are outside the G7 and EU countries.

“If the purchase price of the cargo is below the price ceiling, all Russian companies outside the sanctions can still use Western ships and western insurers. Non-western ships can also follow the price roof because their owners or insurers want to avoid any sanctions lists. Thus, not all vessels carrying Russian oil breaks the rules or sanctions. Unfortunately, much of it does, as the average export price is still higher than the price ceiling, ”Solanko comments.

He writes that at the end of last year, only 20 % of Russian crude oil and 40 % of the oil products were on ships owned or insured by Western companies.

“The transition has been surprisingly fast, and that’s why there are more ships in the Baltic Sea, which we have quite a little information about the condition and background of which. Some non-western ships are obviously inexperienced to operate in demanding conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, some of the shadows may cause an acute environmental threat – but so can many other poor or carelessly operated ship. ”

In addition, anchors dragged on the seabed can also cause cable breaks in the Baltic Sea. According to Solano, the phenomenon is familiar from the world’s seas, and in cases is often a bad seaman skills or a technical defect.

The latest case happened on Fridaywhen cable damage was observed in the Swedish economic zone. The damaged cable is owned by Finnish Cinia and the same C-Lion1 cable was broken last November. The Central Criminal Police has begun the preliminary investigation.

Laura Solanko points out that there have so far been avoided from major accidents. According to him, the explanation is, at least in part, probably that cargo ships are often too valuable to be lost.

“The price of a used oil tanker is only a few tens of millions of dollars, so often the cargo is significantly more valuable than the ship. All parties to the trade have an obvious interest in getting the cargo unharmed. ”

Laura Solanko points out that ports of the Baltic Sea are vital to Russia’s abroad and are particularly important for the export of oil and oil products.

Last year, more than 40 percent of crude oil and nearly 60 percent of oil products were shipped from the ports of the Gulf of Finland, mainly from Laukaansuu and Koivisto. Last year, 30 percent of all port traffic related to Russian foreign trade was dealt with in ports of the Baltic Sea.

“Russia cannot afford to lose the export route in the Baltic Sea. Therefore, messing up trade and sabotage with each other seems like an exceptionally bad idea. And that’s why, too, in the West, there is a clear advantage of the West. ”