Germany: Normality in extraordinary times

What is normality for Germany? Few countries combine such an exceptional history with such a clear will of adustness and predecibility in their political life and their democratic institutions. A tension between normality and anomaly that has been seenLto to substantiate in these elections.

On the one hand, Germany returns to the known. The new government will be headed by a conservative of the CDUas has happened during most of the country’s history since 1949 -including the long stages of Adenauer, Kohl y Merkel-. In addition, the results focus on a coalition government, which also enters the usual: since the foundation of the RFA there have been eight governments of this type. And the most likely formula, which is the coalition between conservatives and social democrats, already supported the Merkel government during several legislatures. The always intelligent Cristina Losada He has compared the great coalition with an analgesic: “If taken promptly, perfect. If you have to always take it, something more serious is mask, instead of treating it.” But, even if this is so, it is clear that the Germans have not opted this time for a drastic treatment.

The apparent normality is questioned, however, by the great result of the radical right. The consolidation of AfD As a second force is a clear novelty in Germany’s political history after World War II. But even in this case the extraordinary is diluted in the known, since the rest of the formations insist on their traditional rejection of collaborating with that of Alice Weidel. This, combined with the disposition of the social democrats to be agreed with the conservatives -the other great difference with the Spanish case, no matter how much our ruling stands out only the maintenance of the sanitary cord, it means that the novelty of the AFD continues to have very limited effects . And its growth cannot surprise in these boom times of the new rights throughout the West. The support of Elon Musk and of Jd vance It does not seem impact on a better result for Weidel than the surveys already predicted, but it indicates that their party is part of a transnational ideological family that is in a sweet moment.

The true anomaly of these elections lies, rather, in the challenges that the new chancellor must face. At the national level, Friedrich Merz You must lead the transformation of an economic model that is taken for granted -or, to put it with the title of the recent book of Wolfgang Münchau On this subject, Kaput-. You must also provide a serious and efficient response – and that does not fall, at the same time, in the recipes of the AFD – to the tensions linked to immigration. And you must do this at a particularly delicate moment for our continent: the turn of the American policy under Donald Trump Not only does an UE-EEU commercial war announce, but also forces Europeans to take the reins of their own defense in the threat of the Russian imperial-critical project. Europe must make many decisions in the coming years, and the Germans have just chosen one of the leaders who will most influence them.

Is Merz the right leader for this moment? There are some reasons to be optimistic: in the campaign, the conservative has highlighted the seriousness of the problems facing his country and the need to make deep reforms that can stop them. He has also been firm in the support of Ukraine and in the rejection of Putinian approaches that both the AFD and Trump have made of them. In addition, it is clear that it will intervene in the EU more than its predecessor, Olaf Scholzwhich is positive in this moment of lack of European leadership. His profile of the former Merkel opponent even house well with this moment in which the legacy of the former Foreign Minister – from her refugee reception policy until her commitment to economic ties with Russia – looks so questioned.

However, one thing is to be clear about problems and another to have the solutions. He Economist He already pointed out a few weeks ago that Merz’s proposals to reactivate the German economy were not ambitious enough; and its aversion to reform the “debt brake” can limit its commitment to the European rearma and their support to the Ukrainians. Your complicated relationship with Ursula von der Leyen It also shows doubts about how it will move in the European context. And it is always possible that Merz is simply a leader too normal for these extraordinary times, and that Germany has opted for the known when all that world is already disappearing.