Arab initiatives about the future of Gaza: there is no unity, Hamas has his own plans

Publication author: Marianna Bellenka

Vitcoff rides to the Middle East again

“We must achieve the extension of the first phase. I will go to the region this week, possibly on Wednesday to agree on this, and we hope that we will have enough time to start the second phase and complete it, as well as release more hostages “,” Said the envoy of the US President in the Middle East, Steve Witkoff in an interview with the American CNN channel. It is planned that he will visit Egypt, Qatar, Israel, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

On the agenda, not only the fate of the transaction on the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, but also the future of the Gaza sector. Without understanding who will be responsible for everything that happens in gas – from the issues of restoration to safety – it is pointless to talk about the continuation of the transaction, which ultimately should end not only by the return of all Israeli hostages, but, as Hamas calculates, the complete led of Israel from Gaza .

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu invariably emphasizes that Hamas should not remain in power in Gaza. He does not agree to the presence of the Palestinian administration (PA) there. The United States is in solidarity with Israel in regard to Hamas, about Pa was not talking. Apparently, Washington took a waiting position.

Recall that US President Donald Trump immediately after his inauguration proposed to relocate the inhabitants of Gaza to Egypt, Jordan and other places. However, after the Arab countries categorically refused to participate in the Trump project, the US president said that he did not intend to impose his proposal, but would only recommend it.

Some Arab media perceived this as a “retreat of Trump.” It is emphasized that the statement of the US president was made on the eve of the “Extraordinary Arab Summit” planned on March 4, which will discuss the plan for restoring the gase without eviction of residents, i.e. Alternative to Trump’s ideas. Actually, in many ways they achieved this in Washington – to hear what the Arab countries plan to do.

Egyptian plan

At the summit in Cairo in the center of the discussion there will be a three -stage plan for the reconstruction of Gaza, developed by Egypt. His details have already appeared in the media. The restoration work itself, according to the Egyptian vision, will be held in two stages, the third stage concerns the “launch of the political process to implement the decision on two states.”

It is assumed that the restoration of the Gase will take from three to five years (the Americans talked about 15 years). The initial amount of $ 20 billion should be given by Arab countries, primarily the Monarchy of the Persian Gulf. Then an international donor conference should be held, during which the remaining funds will be raised. How much money will be needed to restore the sector is unknown. Different numbers sound. According to the latest estimates, we are talking about about $ 53 billion. Before that, large amounts were called – from 80 to 100 billion US dollars.

Cairo emphasizes that the restoration of a gase is possible without eviction from there residents. Egypt proposes to create three “safe zones”, where Palestinians will be able to live at the initial stage in caravan and receive humanitarian aid while the Egyptian and international construction companies will process the blockages and restore infrastructure in the rest of the sector, and tens of thousands of Palestinians will be able to get a job. Egypt also expects that the Middle East Agency of the UN to help Palestinian refugees and the organization of work (UNRWA) will continue its work in gas, despite the fact that Israel has broken all connections with this structure, accusing it of aiding terrorists.

At this stage, the Arab countries have no disagreement, although the question – who is ready to give how much money is not yet resolved. However, they are united in issues such as the refusal to relocate residents of Gaza and the need to create a Palestinian state. All this suits both the Palestinian administration in Ramalla and Hamas. But then the problems associated with the management of the sector and ensuring security there. Arab countries do not want to send their armed forces to Gas – at least there is no clarity in the issue of “creating the Palestinian state.” The Palestinian authorities and Hamas have also repeatedly spoke out against external intervention in their affairs.

In the meantime, Cairo calls for the creation of the Palestinian police, consisting of those who served in its ranks in Gaza until 2007, when the power in the sector was seized by Hamas (how many veterans are left in Gaza and how many of them are suitable for service, it is not clear) . At the same time, Egypt and Western countries are ready to train new police officers. It is also assumed to check all who are going to serve in the police so that people associated with armed groups in gas do not get there, which is generally problematic.

As for the weapons of Hamas and other groups in gas, Cairo tried to please everyone. According to the sources of the Qatari site Al-Arab al-Jadid, the plan includes the creation of weapons warehouses under the supervision of both Egypt and Europe, without the complete disarmament of Palestinian groups. Cairo proposes to create a committee to resolve any disputes or violations by local security forces or armed groups. The Egyptian plan also does not exclude the continuation of work in the Gaza sector of an American private military company. She is assigned control over three points, where the border of the gase is directly suitable for the Israeli settlements.

Arabs have no consent

At the same time, Al-Arabi al-Jadid notes that the Egyptian plan caused criticism of several Gulf states. Who is talking about, unclear. This is probably the UAE and Saudi Arabia. It was noted that the Egyptian plan guarantees that the “armed resistance” will continue to influence the situation in gas and annoy Israel, which threatens any investment plans in the restoration of the sector.

The fact that there are no consensus among the Arab countries, the results of the mini-sammit in Riyadh, where the first persons of the practical Arabian monarchies, except Oman, as well as the President of Egypt, Abd al-Fattah, and King of Jordan Abdullah II were present, are also evidenced by the results of the Arab countries. . Why the representative of the Maskat did not come to Riyadh is unknown. After the meeting, the final statement was also not published, and in general it tried to present it only as a consultation before the summit in Cairo in March.

Information about the disagreements of Egypt and other Arab countries with the Palestinian administration, including its head, Mahmoud Abbas, leaked into the press. According to the sources of Al-Arabi al-Jadid, potential donors refuse to provide the PA direct management of funds, which are planned to be allocated for gas restoration. Donors reasonably fear the inappropriate use of funds. Cairo also believes that Pa has a sufficient number of trusted administrative personnel in the places necessary for gas management.

According to the sources of Al-Arabi al-Jadid, Cairo plans to play the main role in the processes of restoration and management of gas. We are talking about the formation of a technical committee, which will be subordinate to Egypt and be under international control. The Egyptian vision also includes the selection of local personnel, which will undergo thorough selection and verification in coordination with Israel. This applies to both employees involved in both the administrative sphere and in security services.

At the same time, Mahmoud Abbas rejects any formula according to which PA cannot get direct control over gas. It is expected that at a summit in Cairo Abbas will present his vision of the future Gaza sector. From what has already appeared in the media, everything is standard. Pa is ready to take responsibility for gas, including control over all the checkpoint. It is assumed that the work of the checkpoint will be carried out in cooperation with Egypt and the European Union. Pa also considers it necessary to continue working in UNRWA and simultaneously intends to cooperate with Cairo and the UN in the preparation of the International Donorary Conference. The plan also aims at “the implementation of the resolutions of the international community and the Arabic peaceful initiative by stopping the Israeli occupation and the creation of the Palestinian state on the borders of 1967 with the capital in Eastern Jerusalem.” In particular, we are talking about the need to speed up the international peace conference under joint chairmanship of Saudi Arabia and France. It is also assumed after a year of the presidential and parliamentary elections, as well as required by administrative reforms.

At the same time, PA has repeatedly rejected all the ideas of Cairo to create a gas management committee. The Committee was supposed to consist of technocrats formally not related to a particular party, but the list of candidates should have been acceptable for all Palestinian political forces, primarily for Fatha and Hamas. However, Fath and Mahmoud Abbas, who leads this movement, like PA, refused the proposals of Egypt out of fears that Hamas will still retain the gas control levers, even if it formally retreats into the shadow.

Hamasa plan

The representative of Hamas Abdel Latif al-Kan told the Saudi publication “ASh-Shark Al-Ausat” that they informed intermediaries in Egypt and Qatar about their approval of any offer that will control gas without their participation in the administrative bodies. Understanding that no one will give them money to restore Gaza, Hamas is ready to agree to the creation of a committee-technocrats and the return of PA to the sector. Hamas is also easier – the responsibility to the population will not be on them, they will remain aside, allowing us to drown in inevitable criticism for all the upcoming problems associated with the restoration of the sector. Hamas expects to remain “clean.”

At the same time, members of Hamas invariably criticize calls that they should “leave the stage” in gas. This, in particular, recently mentioned the deputy agent “League of the Arab states” to Khusam Zaki. His words had many interpretations – from the abandonment of power to leaving Gaza. But he himself did not give explanations. In Hamas, in response, they said that they had already shown enough flexibility.

Sources of Al-Arabi al-Jadid claim that Cairo reached an agreement with Hamas that they stay away from all aspects of civil administration in Gaza, including security issues. However, Hamas emphasizes that everything related to the weapons of Palestinian groups in gas is not subject to discussion.

However, according to The New York Times, Hamas still “has some willingness to negotiate about the future of the group’s weapons in the Gaza Strip.” It is alleged that this “suggested” in an interview with the American newspaper member of the Politburo Hamas Musa Abu Marzuk. But he only said that Hamas was “ready to discuss any issues” and left the specifics, i.e. No sensations. Moreover, Hamas hastened to say, Nyt pulled out the words of Abu Marzuk from the context, and they do not correspond to the position of movement. This applies to both words about weapons and made the noise of the phrase that “if it were expected to happen what happened, then on October 7 would not be.”

In expert circles, they do not exclude that in the ranks of Hamas there is no unity regarding the future group and the Gaza sector as a whole.

The question is whether the Arab position will clear after the summit in Cairo or not, and what plan will be presented to Washington as a single Arabic alternative to Trump’s ideas. Not to mention whether the United States and Israel will accept it.