Are the assets ‘Made in Spain’ a good refuge in the era of instability?

The first months of 2025 leave a trace of stock instability, Fruit of the presence (and power) of Donald Trump,that worries investors. In the meantime, the messages and warnings of the analysts in each episode of tension are repeated: uncertainty is very high, yes, and we will have to learn to live with it. With a commercial war already initiated, tariffs launched, and some other millionaire loss of world indices (even the Americans), can be asked: is there any place to invest safely from Trump’s decisions?

Analysts are overwhelming: no. We are all exposed to the US trade war. “No one is on the sidelines, the Trump effect affects us all,” he explains Rafael Alonso of the analysis and markets team of Bankinter. However, and continuing with the message of prudence For investors, it never hurts to look back and monitor which indexes (and sectors) have done well during these months, because there may be the key to the following.

Europe promises

The old continent has been doing their duties for some time: with each new type cut executed by the ECB, the Inflation of Europe He approached a more controlled situation. In fact, analysts highlight how 2025 have meant the Second Best Start of the European Stock Exchange In the last 25 years.

Thus, the European market trajectory is observed with optimism, which is recovering from the bad evolution that it has had with respect to other world indices, they recently argued since the firm Abante advisors. Proof of this is that Eurostoxx 50 grew by 15.3% between February 2024 and 2025, while for the same period, the S&P 500 in the US increased by 20.7%. And while there are no “immense profitability”, the key to its analysts is found in the “forgotten assets”, and in this neglect to European products compared to others more striking.

“A few months ago there was a feeling that it had to be Uploaded to the car of the American assets, by him EFFECT TRUMP. It is no longer like that, and that is allowing the market to look at other aspects that were perhaps more forgotten, “explains José Ramón Iturriaga, manager of the Okavango Delta de Abante Advisors. Fundamentally focused on Europe, USA and Asia, this fund includes near 25 Spanish companies. The expert believes that often the political noise It frightens investors and leaves the Spanish index away from its radar.

Nothing is further from the current reality, than in the heat of the good evolution of the economy and the business results of the last year, it presents the Ibex35 as one of the great promises among European indices.

The jewel of the Ibex 35

The most representative index in the country closed 2024 with a 20% profitability. And so far from 2025, accumulates a 15.1% growth. Moreover, only in February, when it exceeded the 13,000 points barrier (not seen levels since 2007), about 8%was revalued. And with it, even the behavior of the Euro stoxx 50 (European reference) and its growth 3,34% In the same month. Analysts defend that theirs has been one of the best evolutions within Europe, which is a clear and positive signal for the following months, as stated in the recent report of Deutsche Bank España The success of a service economy. In the document, where they share their prospects for February 2025, the entity exposes how, after “extraordinary growth in 2024” and an annual increase of 3.2%, “the year 2025 should bring a certain brake to growth, although it would still remain significantly higher than the euro zone assembly “. Moreover, from Deutsche Bank they defend that “the specialization of the Spanish economic model towards a service economy will allow the potential tariffs from the US in a better situation than its European counterparts.”

“The Spanish Stock Exchange has been doing well since October 2020,” explains Iturriaga since abante advisors, and extends this good behavior to the rest of European stock markets. “The key is being the Standardization of interest rates“, adds the expert. In an environment of interest rates” so anomalously “prolonged” for a very long period “, many inefficiencies in the capital market were produced”. “In the specific case of the stock market, the sectors that did well were fundamentally those that are known as growth, and of those, the European stock market, and in concrete the Spanish, it has few,” explains Iturriaga. Interest rates “at reasonable levels” for the Spanish Stock Exchange to start takeoff.

In the case of Spain, the three fundamental factors are a bit: the macroeconomy, the microeconomicsand the Valuations. “That makes the behavior of the European stock exchange better than the American, and within the European, that the Spanish is highlighting,” adds Iturriaga. Of the aforementioned macroeconomic aspects that accompany the good trajectory of the Spanish Stock Exchange, the expert highlights a very low level of indebtedness of the private sector, a balance of payments “that has also turned around”, the business results for the last quarter of last year and the valuations. “It is the key,” explains Iturriaga, who adds that “the valuations of the Spanish stock market, remain of The most attractive in Europe“Therefore, he concludes,” there are reasons to think that he will continue doing well in the coming years. “

From Bankinter, Alonso is overwhelming: “In the next two months, the sectors of Defense and Banking“.

Bank strength

From Deutsche Bank they explain that “the Strong weight of the financial sector In the IBEX35, one of our favorite sectors makes us optimistic for 2025 “, and even contrast the situation with the neighboring country, France:” For fixed income, the Spanish risk premium has resisted well to the crisis of neighboring France. “

“European banks have done very well,” Coindice Alonso, although he emphasizes that, in the case of Ibex35 (“a very banking index”), the financial sector “has done so Exceptionally well“Therefore, from Bankinter they believe that” banking is a good sector to be “because the demand for credit goes up, and with stable interest rates,” banks will give profitability on capital to levels similar to those of 2024, which have been record profitability. “Among the favorite entities of the entity are Santander (which in February increased its value by 25.3%) and CaixaBank (14,2%).

The last entity is among the bets of Abante Advisores, who emphasize the great “sustained profitability“From Spanish banking. In the case of Caixabank, Iturriaga explains that” it is one of the values ​​with the greatest profitability by dividend of the Spanish Stock Exchange. “However, his bets also extends to other sectors,” more linked to the real economy, “such as the turismo and the industrial companies. To justify this bet, the analyst highlights the good behavior of the Services Sector With the “change of priorities” that brought with them the years of Covid-19 Pandemia, and how their great weight in Spanish GDP supports the good evolution of the economy of recent years. And within this sector, some companies that have shone this past 2024 and that to date the writing of this article had “very attractive” assessments, are found Meliá e IAG. The latter, in addition, has revalued 17.33% at the beginning of 2025.

Iturriaga also defends the construction sector And “the tail wind that has clearly” before the current housing crisis: “From the macro point of view, this is future growth, reservoir. The economy will continue to grow, and economic cycles in Spain have always gone hand in hand with the behavior of the brick sector.” Among the most striking promoters stand out Metrovacesa y Aedasand among the singly points to Merlin Properties. On the other hand, among the industrialists, logically, to Acerinox.

Defense takeoff

Europe’s latest decisions to increase its expenditure in the arms sector have revalued this sector. Rheinmetall in Germany and Thales In Franca they have seen their value take off at a vertiginous speed. In Spain, its greatest reference is in Indra and its meteoric take -off this 2025. “The defense per se allows you to have a good profitability in a structural way“Alonso concludes when defending Bankinter’s commitment to this firm.

The Italian option

For those who want to consider other alternatives within Europe (in times of uncertainty, it is good to diversify), Alonso points to the FTSEmore representative index in Italy, as another of the most Resilient by greatly relying on the banking sector. Among Bankinter bets, for example, are Unicredit and its estimated increase of 13.9%, and 12.8% for Understanding. And if the arms impulse is sought, the alpine country also has its signature in the sector: Leonardo.

And, although el made in the USA It is a very striking label, there are many reasons to think that made in Europeand therefore, the made in Spainthey are placed in front very soon (go the prudence of analysts ahead).