Trump’s duties and recession risk, the economy can stop the President of the United States

Among these, there is one who has just put black on white on his profile for a merciless analysis of the consequences of these first months of Trumpismo again. AND’ Mark Zandi, Chief Economist di Moody’s. The risks of a recession in the United States starting next year, writes, “are unpleasantly high and increasing. I would put them to 35%, increasing compared to 15%of the beginning of the year. To contextualize, the probability of typical recession is 15%: the US economy historically suffers every 6 or 7 years on average. The economy will probably suffer a flexion if the Trump administration will maintain the announcements announced and He will keep the duties for more than a few months “.

And Dazicontinues Zandi, “they will trigger a global commercial war, with the US commercial partners who will impose their rates and non -tariff barriers on US products. Even the prices of actions will continue to go down, weighing on the wealth and expenditure capacity of the wealthy Americans, who are guiding much of the current economic growth”. Of course, “too the random cuts of the doge At work and government funding and the uncertainty linked to a possible shutdown and the roof on the debt, which will emerge in the coming weeks, they are weighing on the economy “. The economist also goes beyond.” Needless to say that a weak or recession economy will also aggravate tax problems, since it will affect the revenues and automatically push public spending on the insurance against unemployment and other support programs and other support programs to income “.

Significant comparing this analysis with what the economist himself wrote at the end of September last. “I hesitated to say it at risk of looking exaggerated, but with the revisions of last week’s GDP, it cannot be denied: this is one of the economies with the best performances in my over 35 years as an economist”. The picture is clear enough. Trump settled in the White House with a healthy economy. After less than two months, the trend is turning over.

Compared to January 20, with the famous photo he saw among others aligned in support for Trump Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Sundar Pichaias well as obviously a Elon Muskthe financial thermometer also marks a sensational fact: the S&P 500 lost 6.4% since the president came into office. It means huge losses for everyone.

The bet was that Trump’s plans on tax cuts and the promise of the largest imaginable deregulation operation would have stimulated even more an economy already solidly expanding. It is not going like this. The spectrum of a recession he is Burn billions of Wall Street These are the signs of a profound impatience of the economy and finance to the choices that feed uncertainty and conflict, such as duties. And if these indications were confirmed, the American economy could stop Trump.