The tariff situation and weakness of the dollar benefit the peso

The probability of greater appreciation of the weight increased last week, as bets in favor of their best level since the beginning of November 2024.

After reaching an appreciation of 1.69 percent over two weeks ago, equivalent to 34 cents, to break with the 20 units per dollar and close Friday at 19,9238 pesos, their best level since November, the net speculative positions waiting for an appreciation in the Chicago futures market showed an increase of 10 thousand 600 contracts.

According to the Chicago futures market, gross speculative positions in favor of the peso increased 54 percent from March 7 to 14, which is equivalent to 30 thousand 100 contracts, something not seen since the beginning of November 2024.

“The Mexican currency remains resilient when we appreciate 1.6 percent last week and close about 19.91 per dollar, which placed its next support zone in 19.6, where it converges with its average of 200 days.

While it is true that the strength of weight is attributed to economic factors such as international reserves and a decrease in tensions with the United States, the weakness of the dollar also influences recent weeksexplained the Banamex investment analysis area.

For Cibanco, the weight has managed to uncheck a little of the concerns. The government’s conciliatory position without the application (still) of reprisals, which was even applauded by the Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick), seems to be well received by global financial markets and joins the idea that Mexico could eventually be excluded from the tariffs of the United States or that they would have a short application.

The weakening of the dollar has been mainly reflected in European currency profits, with a panorama that improves outside the United States as the fear of a recession before Donald Trump’s policies.