The Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) estimated that industrial activity registered in October a decrease close to 2% year-on-year according to his own calculations. The manufacturing center focuses on the forecast fall in activity, which keeps the sector in a scenario of accumulated stagnation and well below the levels of previous years.
Although the survey of The UIA detected a slight improvement of +0.3% without seasonality compared to September which implied a somewhat more favorable movement for the month, the general panorama showed irregular dynamics and disparate results between the items.
The indicators available for October reflected this heterogeneous behavior. While some resorts showed a rebound, others continued to suffer from weak demand.
Among the complexes associated with construction, the data evidenced this disparity. Cement shipments grew 5.4% in the monthly comparison, but the Construya Index, which monitors input sales, fell 2.2% in the same period.
Despite these specific advances, construction continued to be the most affected group, with declines of more than 20% compared to 2022 and 2023, in a context of weakened domestic demand.
Other items registered positive signs after weaker months. The production of base metals increased 3.5% and metalworking advanced 0.3%. Also The increases in beverages (1.6%) and car production (1.2%) stood outdriven by greater shipments abroad.
On the other hand, the patenting of industrial machinery decreased 8% in October, although it accumulated an increase of 26% year-on-year so far this year, driven by the harvest.
The UIA report also warned about the export outlook, and highlights the decline in exports to Brazilwhich fell 6.2% compared to September. This decline coincided with a marked decrease in the liquidation of agro-industrial currencies (80%) in October, an effect derived from the temporary reduction of export duties on the cereal-oilseed complex in the previous month.
With all the data and estimates, the UIA concluded that accumulated industrial activity is stagnant, to the point that it was at levels similar to those projected for the fourth quarter of 2024 and approximately 10% below 2022 and 2023.
Within the long-term sectoral analysis, only oil refining and motorcycle production showed recovery compared to the same accumulated period in 2022, remaining the most dynamic items.