In 2025, the strength of the Mexican peso is the weakness of the dollar. The national currency has accumulated a gain of 12.4 percent so far this year, according to data from the interbank market of the Bank of Mexico (BdeM), while the DXY index, which measures the behavior of the US currency against a set of six international currencies, has accumulated a decline of 8.3 this year.
The Mexican peso closed November at 18.2853 units per dollar spotits strongest level since July 2024, driven by the weakness of the greenback, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the United States in December and caution in the BdeM’s upcoming decisions.
According to information from the Banco Base analysis area, the accumulated gain of the national currency, greater than 12 percent, places the currency in position seven among the most depreciated.
“In November, the Mexican peso was supported by the behavior of the dollar and the expectations that the Bank of Mexico will maintain greater caution in the next monetary policy decisions, considering the adjustment of the Governing Board in its prospective guide,” said Janneth Quiroz, director of economic analysis, exchange rate and stock market at Monex.
In addition, there is the expectation that the BdeM could pause its cycle of cuts to the reference interest rate after the December 18 meeting, which favors the rate differential with the United States and increases the attractiveness of investments in government assets.
However, the slowdown in economic activity exhibited in the third quarter of 2025 resulted in the Mexican central bank adjusting its GDP growth forecast downwards in its quarterly report to 0.3 percent annually, from 0.6 percent previously.
In October, national exports showed a significant recovery in an environment of commercial uncertainty, which boosted the supply of dollars in the country.
The momentum runs out
Meanwhile, in the United States, the resumption of key economic publications provides more clarity on the state of the economy, although some data is expected to continue lagging until the final weeks of 2025 and early 2026.
The divergence of opinions among the members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the low visibility of the state of the labor market and inflation generate uncertainty ahead of the monetary policy meeting on December 10. However, traders remain optimistic that a 0.25 percentage point cut will materialize, as the implied probability on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) rises to 86.9.
For its part, future net speculative positions of the peso decreased 22.9 percent, reaching 67,600 contracts in favor of the Mexican currency in the short term in the CME.
The number of agreements operated by speculators fell from 87,700 the previous week, which reflects a deterioration in investor confidence in the short-term performance of the peso, in a context of monetary and economic uncertainty in both countries.