The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) lowered its GDP growth projection for Argentina for next year 4,3% al 3%according to its latest economic outlook report published this Tuesday.
The Paris-based organization expects Argentina to conclude this year with a GDP recovery of 4.2% -from a 1.9% drop in 2024- and grow 3% in 2026.
These projections imply a downward correction with respect to the forecasts published by the OECD last September, when it indicated that it expected economic growth in Argentina of 4.5% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026.
In its new report, the organization estimates an expansion of Argentine GDP of 3.9% by 2027, indicates that “growth will be driven by investment and exports, thanks to an increasingly business-friendly environment, less onerous regulations and a dynamic energy and mining sector.”
and noted that, after three quarters of “solid” growth, real GDP in the second quarter of 2025 decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, due to a 0.7% drop in domestic demand.
“Inflation has been decreasing and fiscal deficits have been closed, but growth has weakened recently and exchange rate pressures have illustrated persistent macroeconomic vulnerabilities and political uncertainty,” the agency noted.
Regarding Argentine inflation, the OECD predicts that consumer prices will grow by 41.7% this year – from 219.9% in 2024 – and 17.6% in 2026.
This implies an upward revision of the projections published last September, which calculated inflation of 39.8% in 2025 and 16.5% in 2026.
On the other hand, the OECD forecasts a current account deficit of 1.7% of GDP for this year – from a surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 2024 – and a negative balance of 1% of GDP for 2026.
The document also noted that spending moderation and increased tax collection, supported by economic recovery, have improved Argentina’s fiscal results, but warned that “more reforms will be needed to maintain fiscal prudence and, at the same time, boost potential growth.”
The OECD considered that monetary policy “should focus on keeping inflation on a downward path” and that the recovery of the Argentine Central Bank’s international monetary reserves “should be a key priority to address persistent vulnerabilities and continue the stabilization of the economy.”
Global projections
At a global level, for the OECD, the world economy, although it has shown resilience this year, still carries certain underlying frailties. The report foresees thatGlobal growth slows from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, before rebounding to 3.1% in 2027.
In the United States, GDP would slow from 2.0% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. In the euro area, forecasts put growth at 1.3% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. In China, growth is expected to soften from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027.
Regarding prices, the annual general inflation of the G-20 economies it would moderate to 2.9% in 2029 and 2.5% in 2027compared to the 3.4% recorded this year. By mid-2027, inflation is expected to return to around target in most large economies.
“Given the fragility of the world economy, countries They must redouble their efforts to engage in a constructive dialogue that ensures a lasting resolution of trade tensions and reduces uncertainty around public policies,” said Mathias Cormann, Secretary General of the OECD. He adds: “Maintaining discipline in public accounts is key to facing the growing risks derived from high public debt and the increase in spending needs associated with defense requirements and an aging population. Implementing structural reforms that reduce bureaucracy, simplify regulations and lower barriers to entry in service sectors is essential to boost competition, innovation and business dynamism and, ultimately, sustainably strengthen living standards.”
Supportive macroeconomic policies, improved financial conditions—encouraged by optimism about the potential impact of new technologies—and increased investment to facilitate the adoption of artificial intelligence contributed to underpinning demand, countering the adverse effects of high policy uncertainty and rising trade barriers.
The full impact of the increase in tariffs has not yet been perceived, but it is beginning to become increasingly visible in spending decisions, business costs and consumer prices, especially in the United States. Global trade growth moderated in the second quarter. In addition, There are signs of a lower demand for labor, as evidenced by the return of job offers to pre-pandemic levels in 2019.