USA to Europe: until 2027 the burden shifts to you

The United States wants Europe to take over the vast majority of NATO’s conventional defense capabilities by 2027. This is what Pentagon officials told diplomats in Washington this week, according to a Reuters report. The American officials made it clear to their colleagues that this is a binding deadline, and if Europe does not meet it, the United States could end its participation in some of the alliance’s security planning and coordination mechanisms. The message, Described by five sources privy to the details, it was delivered at a meeting held in Washington between the Pentagon staff overseeing NATO policy and several European delegations.

At the meeting, the Pentagon officials stated that Washington is not yet satisfied with the steps taken by Europe to strengthen its security capabilities since the expansion of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Conventional defense capabilities include non-nuclear assets ranging from forces to weapons and missiles. Shifting this burden from the United States to the European members of NATO will dramatically change the way the United States, a founding member of the alliance, operates vis-à-vis its most important military partners. However, the officials did not explain how the US would measure Europe’s progress in carrying the burden.

A number of European officials have argued that the 2027 target is unrealistic, regardless of how it is measured. They explained that Europe needs more than money and political will to replace certain American capabilities in the short term. The Allies are facing delays in the production of military equipment, and despite the American encouragement to purchase US-made equipment, some of the requested systems will only be delivered in years if ordered now. In addition, the US contributes capabilities that cannot simply be purchased, such as unique intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance that have proven decisive in the war in Ukraine. The European Union has set itself a goal for self-defense until 2030, but this goal is also considered very ambitious.

It is unclear whether the 2027 deadline represents the position of the entire Trump administration or just the views of certain Pentagon officials, as there are divisions in Washington over the US military role in Europe. President Donald Trump has sent mixed messages; while in the 2024 campaign he attacked allies, at the NATO summit in June he praised leaders for agreeing to raise the defense spending target to 5% of GDP. Trump recently showed a willingness to negotiate with Moscow, and European officials complained that they were excluded from these talks. The US Deputy Secretary of State, Christopher Landau, wrote on the X network that it is “clear” that the allies should take responsibility for the defense of Europe, and emphasized that the current administration means what it says. A NATO official said in response that the allies recognize the need to invest more, but did not specifically refer to the 2027 deadline.