Crisis in Venezuela could lead to the fall of the dictatorship in Cuba

Why does a crisis in Venezuela affect Cuba so much?

Cuba has depended for decades on Venezuelan oil, which was sold at subsidized prices, that is, well below market prices. With American pressure and the internal crisis, fuel shipments from Caracas to Havana plummeted, worsening the already severe shortages of food, medicine and energy on the island.

What is the main goal of the United States?

The main objective is to force the downfall of dictator Nicolás Maduro. However, the American strategy, with strong influence from Secretary Marco Rubio, sees the Venezuelan collapse as a way to cut off Cuba’s main source of sustenance. The bet is that, without cheap oil from Caracas, the Cuban regime will also collapse.

What does Venezuela receive from Cuba in return?

In exchange for the oil, Havana sends doctors and, mainly, an unknown number of military and intelligence agents. These Cuban agents are a key player in Nicolás Maduro’s personal security and work in the counterintelligence of the Venezuelan armed forces, helping to keep the dictator in power.

How has Cuba reacted to this pressure?

The Cuban regime shows great concern. Miguel Diáz-Canel’s government accuses the US of an “aggressive threat” and considers the overthrow of Maduro dangerous and irresponsible. The fear is so great that even former dictator Raúl Castro, aged 94, reappeared at a meeting of the Defense Council, reaffirming his authority.

Would Maduro’s fall mean the immediate end of the dictatorship in Cuba?

Analysts believe that it would not be an immediate end, but a very harsh blow that would further weaken the Cuban dictatorship. Without its main regional ally and the source of cheap oil, the Havana regime could become even more closed or, faced with economic collapse, be forced to consider a democratic opening.