Stability in Europe and Wall Street ahead of the interest rate decision

10:46

Israeli on Wall Street: Alpha Tau Medical (DRTS) increased by 8.7% in a cycle that was 28 times higher than the average cycle. In late trading, it flew at 25% in turnover, which was 22 times higher than its average turnover in regular trading in the past year.

It announced that the first patient was treated in a pilot study for the treatment of recurrent glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) brain tumor using its Alpha DaRT technology. This is a radiation technology that uses alpha radiation to target cancer cells.

Since it was issued, the company has increased the number of its shares by 148%. The stock was issued in March 2021 and has since fallen by 58%. Analysts expect it to turn profitable in 2029.

10:30

European trading is stable this morning, as are Wall Street contracts ahead of the publication of interest rates in the US this evening.

While Trump is looking for a convenient replacement for him, the chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell, is expected to announce tonight the interest rate cut in the US, the real curiosity is about the interest rate forecasts for 2026, the Fed is expected to announce that the process of interest rate reductions is going on hiatus, in the meantime, the opposition among the members of the committee is increasing: some are worried about the stubborn inflation, and that the current interest rate is not enough to bring it back to the target.

The announcement of the interest rate comes at a crucial moment for the central bank – President Trump is increasing the pressure on Chairman Jerome Powell to reduce the interest rate, in the financial markets there are increasing fears of a bubble in the field of artificial intelligence, and at the same time, the trade war that Trump is conducting collides with stubborn inflation, a vulnerable labor market and a decrease in consumer confidence.

In view of mixed macro data, some expect the Fed to announce that the interest rate reduction process is on a temporary pause. This is also in light of the estimates that we may see a number of opponents to the current reduction, at least until more data is accumulated to support further reductions.

08:50

In Asia this morning there is a mixed trend – the Tokyo Stock Exchange is down 0.2%, Shanghai by 0.7% and Hong Kong by 0.3% after the consumer price index in China rose by 0.7% compared to the previous year – the sharpest increase since February last year. This is a higher rate than the 0.2% increase recorded in October, and is in line with the forecast of economists polled by Reuters, who also expected a 0.7% increase. The South Korean stock market rises by 0.3%, India by 0.2%.

The futures contracts on Wall Street are trading stably, now all eyes are on the announcement of the interest rate decision tonight at 21:00 Israel time –

Trading in New York closed yesterday in a mixed trend, with the opening of the December policy meeting of the Federal Reserve and the publication of government data that showed a surprising increase in the number of vacancies, alongside a sharp increase in layoffs.

The S&P 500 closed slightly lower. The Nasdaq, which led the declines at the beginning of the day, recovered slightly and rose by about 0.1%. The Dow Jones fell by about 0.3%, following a sharp drop in the stock JP Morgan which fell to 4% after CFO Marian Lake warned that the bank’s expenses would increase in 2026 – due to increasing competition in the credit card sector and due to high-cost investments in the field of artificial intelligence.

The Russell 2000 index, which includes the small stocks that are more sensitive to interest rate changes, rose 0.5% to an all-time high.

Amazon announced this morning that it will invest more than 35 billion dollars in the field of cloud and artificial intelligence in India by 2030, as part of the race of the technology giants to establish a foothold in the local market. The commitment, revealed at the Amazon Smbhav conference in New Delhi, joins the approximately 40 billion dollars the company has already invested in the country.

In a press release, Amazon stated that the new funds will be directed to AI-driven digital efficiency, promoting exports and creating jobs – while aligning with India’s national priorities for strengthening the local AI industry.

According to the company, by 2030 the program is expected to create one million additional jobs – direct, indirect, induced and seasonal – increase exports fourfold to $80 billion, and make the benefits of AI accessible to 15 million small businesses. The investment underscores Amazon’s confidence in India’s growing digital economy, where it is building logistics hubs, data centers and payments infrastructure.

The move comes shortly after Microsoft announced a $17.5 billion investment in AI infrastructure in India, as the tech giants step up their race in the market.

“We are proud to be a part of India’s digital transformation journey over the last 15 years,” said Amit Agarwal, senior vice president of emerging markets at Amazon. “Going forward, we are excited to continue to be a catalyst in India’s growth, making AI accessible to millions of Indians.”

as aforesaid, Microsoft Yesterday announced its largest investment ever in Asia: 17.5 billion dollars in India over the next four years, with the aim of promoting cloud infrastructure and artificial intelligence in the country. The investment highlights the growing global competition between tech giants to expand in India, which has become one of the fastest growing digital markets in the world.

Nvidia decreased even though Trump allows it to supply chips in China. In a post on Truth Social, it is stated that the company will be able to supply the H200 chips to “approved customers” in China and other countries, provided that 25% of the sales revenue is transferred to the American government.

oracle Publish the quarterly report tonight. The stock that flew to an all-time high this year – a share price of over $328 last September – lost about a third of its value to a price of about $221.

Is there an investment opportunity in it? Thomas Blakey McCantor expects updates on cloud infrastructure revenues (OCI) that may reach 75% of total revenues in 2030 and on AI infrastructures and their contribution to gross profit. “In his estimation, positive results in the company’s business will bode well for the stock and the recommendation remains excess yield at a target price of $400, a premium of 81%. At Jefferies, analyst Brent Thiel recommends a buy at the same target price. An examination he conducted indicated a slight increase from quarter to quarter in the growth of AI. In his estimation, there is more chance of upside than downside in the stock.

stock Home Depot fell after the company expected lower-than-expected sales growth next year, in the face of a prolonged recession in home improvement activity. The chain expects sales to grow in the range of 2.5%-4.5% in its next financial year, which is more conservative than the 4.5% growth expected by analysts in the FactSet survey.

In the US debt market – US Treasury bond yields are slightly down after the number of vacancies in the US surprisingly went up, a figure that highlights the challenge facing the Federal Reserve’s policymakers as they prepare to vote tomorrow on whether to lower interest rates again.

Yields recovered from a daily low recorded this morning in the US, after a Labor Ministry report showed that the number of vacancies in October rose to the highest level in five months. Although traders continue to almost fully price in a quarter of a percentage point interest rate cut in the Fed’s decision, the two previous interest rate cuts this year were designed to deal with a weakening labor market, including an increase in the unemployment rate to nearly 4.5%.

Yesterday’s declines were a buying opportunity, as the high unemployment rate is expected to keep the Fed on the cusp of cutting interest rates, said George Catrambon, head of bonds at DWS America. Ten-year yields above 4.3% are not “a sustainable zone for the state of the economy today,” he said.

In the monthly sale of 10-year bonds by the Ministry of Finance, which was held today, a yield of 4.175% was recorded, corresponding to the level recorded in trading before the end of the auction. The market reaction was minimal.

Bitcoin, contrary to expectations, jumped by more than 3% to $93,800 yesterday, Ethereum jumped by more than 6% to $3,335.

This is despite the fact that strategists have become cautious about the chances of a crypto rally at the end of the year. Today the Fed is expected to lower interest rates and investors will closely follow the words of the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, to look for clues about the next step of the policy makers.

“If Powell does sound tough, the chance of a Santa rally for Bitcoin is slim,” said Nick Pakrin, an investment analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau. “Momentum has not been on Bitcoin’s side recently, despite new purchases by Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), so we may end 2025 below $100,000,” he added. However, Pakrin expects the crypto to recover once President Trump’s nomination to replace Powell is announced when the appointment expires in May. The leading candidate is Kevin Hassett, who is considered industry friendly.

Bitcoin has struggled to recover in recent weeks after being hit by its October peak price of around $126,000. Bitcoin is down 2% so far this year, putting it on track for its worst annual performance since the crypto winter of 2022, which saw it lose over 64% of its value. The currency is also moving sharply away from stocks for the first time since 2014, while the S&P 500 is up 16%.

According to Reuters, market traders estimate a 15% probability that Bitcoin will end the year below the $80,000 mark. Strategist Fong Le from Standard Chartered, a body that previously estimated that Bitcoin would end 2025 at a price of $200,000, now estimates that it will be below $100,000.

The price of silver is close to a peak and the asset management company DHF Capital estimates that the price is supported by the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut; and due to the continued flow of money into ETFs while the inventory remains low. In the foreign exchange market, there were only slight changes in the shekel-dollar and shekel-euro exchange rates.

In the world, several countries are updating their interest rates this week.

Ofer Klein, head of the economics and research department at Harel, estimates that interest rates in the US will drop by 0.25%. After that, the Fed will signal a pause until there is clarity regarding the labor market and inflation.

The director of the White House National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, said he sees “big room” for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates significantly.

Hassett, who is considered Donald Trump’s leading candidate for the position of the next Fed chairman according to a Bloomberg report, will he act for more significant interest rate cuts, as the president wants, if he is appointed to the position – “If the data shows that it can be done, then, like now, I think there is a lot of margin to do it,” he said. When asked if he meant more than 25 basis points, he replied: “True.”

Klein believes that the process of reducing interest rates in the Eurozone is over. According to him, “According to the initial estimate, inflation in the bloc rose to 2.2% in November, slightly above expectations.” He adds that Isabelle Schnabel, one of the hawkish figures at the European Central Bank, has stated that she supports estimates that the next move will be an interest rate hike.

Tomorrow the Swiss central bank will publish its quarterly decision (in Switzerland they do it once a quarter). “We expect the interest rate to remain unchanged at 0%, along with a signal that it will remain at this level for an extended period,” Klein wrote.

The Central Bank of India reduced the interest rate for the first time in six months to 5.25%. The governor noted that the low inflation contributed to the decision, but also emphasized the faster-than-expected quarterly growth of about 8%, which allows the bank a wide margin of action.

The recent rally in stocks may hit a roadblock after the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut, when investors will be inclined to take profits, according to strategists at JP Morgan. “Investors may have a tendency to realize the profits towards the end of the year, instead of increasing exposure,” the bank wrote, “the expectation of the interest rate cut is already fully weighted and priced, and the shares have returned to record highs.”

The markets are pricing in a 92% chance that the US central bank will lower interest rates today. Bets on a rate cut have risen consistently following positive comments from policymakers in recent weeks, helping to propel stocks.

The bank’s strategists remained optimistic in the medium term, noting that a passive policy on the part of the Federal Reserve would support stocks. At the same time, low oil prices, a moderate rate of wage growth and reduced pressure from American tariffs will allow the Fed to ease monetary policy without accelerating inflation, they wrote.

“Global stocks have recovered in recent weeks and reached close to the all-time high recorded in October. However, there is still uncertainty regarding the Fed’s path in 2026, in light of mixed signals on the state of the US labor market,” the bank’s analysts wrote. artificial in the USA”.

The bank has already warned that the stock rally in the US may stall after the Fed’s interest rate cut in September, the market has been volatile since then, before it began to stabilize in recent weeks in light of new optimism about a December interest rate cut.

The majority of asset managers surveyed in an informal Bloomberg Asia, Europe Wall Street survey indicated that they position their portfolios in a positive risk environment through 2026.