Why cell phones would not drop in price despite the Government’s announcements

In theory, this should generate a drop in smartphone prices. However, that relief has already been neutralized by an international phenomenon that completely exceeds the local market: the global crisis of DRAM and NAND memories.

During the last few weeks, the idea circulated that cell phones would drop by around 40% due to tax changes. But companies in the sector clarify that the real reduction will be 8%only applicable to imported equipment, and which will only be felt from mid-January. Even so, this improvement becomes scarce in the face of the explosive increase in the cost of memories that all cell phones use.

Companies linked to artificial intelligence—from NVIDIA to infrastructure manufacturers such as Western Digital— they are massively purchasing DRAM and 3D NAND, the two types of memory essential to power the data centers where AI models are trained. The DRAM It is key to executing processes; the NANDto store enormous volumes of information.

This hoarding generates a structural change in the industry. Factories are allocating more and more capacity to produce HBMthe high-bandwidth memory used by AI accelerators, reducing the supply of traditional memories such as DDR y LPDDRthose who use cell phones. This conversion has already skyrocketed prices and projections indicate that the worst has not yet come.

The result is already felt: according to TeamGroupone of the largest manufacturers in the sector, DRAM and 3D NAND contract prices increased between 80% and 100% in December. And market values ​​confirm it. A 16 GB DDR5 chip, which cost $6.84 in September, went to $24.83 in November and is already around $27.2 at the beginning of December, with peaks that reached 37 dollars.

Added to this are advertisements from the Koreans Samsung and SK Hynix —two of the largest producers in the world—who anticipated increases of up to 30% in DRAM and NAND for the last quarter of 2025. International analysts even detect increases of up to 500% in certain memories for servers and increasing shortages in the consumption channel.

“There is a lawsuit that is moving too quickly against an offer without the capacity to react for the phenomenon. This started in September. And all AI players invest at a speed that is very difficult to follow,” said Jean-Pierre Cecillon, Director of Kingston South America, another of the world’s memory manufacturers.

In parallel, some cell phone manufacturers aim to OpenAIthe company behind ChatGPT, as one of the main people responsible for the lack. AI models consume unprecedented amounts of memoryand a good part of the DRAM used by servers is the same that is installed in cell phones, notebooks, consoles, video cards and SSDs. They all compete for the same resource, pushing up the price.

Much of the DRAM used by training servers today is exactly the same one that is installed in mid- and high-range cell phones (6, 8, 12 or 16 GB), notebooks, video game consoles, video cards and even solid state drives (SSDs). That hoarding triggered a global increase in prices that is already being transferred to the cell phone production chains.

The lowering of tariffs for the import of cell phones has already generated some discounts since the middle of the year, especially in brands such as Motorola, Realme and Samsungin addition to the official resellers of Apple. The reduction of the tariff from 16% to 8% and the reduction of the internal taxes of the 19% al 9,5% They were key to that partial relief.

Decree 333/2025 sought to reinforce this trend: it established a rate of 8% of the DIE for smartphones and established that it will drop to 0% in January 2026. Under normal conditions, this reduction should translate into more affordable prices. But this global crisis is blunt: If the memory goes up, the price of the cell phone goes up.

Manufacturers predict that cost pressure will continue throughout 2026. Some internal estimates speak of 40% to 50% increases in the cost of DRAM and NAND memorya direct impact on the final price of the smartphone. Therefore, even with the 8% drop, the Argentine consumer you will hardly see a real reduction in gondolas.

The factories of Land of Fire They are already negotiating new cost scales with the Government to be able to support 64 GB, 128 GB and 256 GB models, whose values ​​depend almost entirely on the international memory market.

This does not only affect Argentina. Whoever travels abroad will also find most expensive notebooks, cell phones and consoles in 2025 and 2026. The PCs already project increases for the end of the year; the video cards (GPU) will add between 15 and 30 dollars extra just because of the memory cost; and solid state drives (SSD) will rise during the first quarter.

What’s more, the industry recognizes that it could be the biggest memory crisis in 30 years.

Gerry Chen, CEO of TeamGroupanticipates that DRAM and NAND availability will worsen in the first and second quarters of 2026, when distribution reserves run out. “Getting an assignment will be difficult, even if you pay more”he warns.

Although some voices believe that this boom could stabilize within a yearthe most skeptical fear that it will last longer if investment in AI continues to grow at the current rate.

Chinese memory manufacturers already recognize that in 2026 they will have to reduce production volumes because they cannot supply all market segments. They even compare this scenario with the 2020-2021 crisis due to cryptocurrency mining: A single global trend distorted the entire market.

In parallel, some brands are considering promoting cloud storage a palliative mode, to reduce the need to sell models with 256 GB or 1 TB; although this implies changing usage habits and assuming a monthly cost that many users are not willing to pay.