The economy rose 0.3% in the third quarter and managed to avoid recession

This afternoon the INDEC reported that in the third quarter GDP rose 0.3% compared to the previous period and 3.3% compared to last year. And so far this year it has accumulated an expansion of 5.2%.

Private sector forecasts indicate that the year will end with growth that It will go from 3.5 to 4.5%.

During the year, the sectors that grew the most They were financial intermediation with 28.4% year-on-year, energy, mines and quarries with 10.3% and hotels and restaurants (7.1%).. And the most delayed are fishing with -20% and industry with -2.4%.

Throughout the year, the economy grew 1.1% in the first quarter, fell 0.1% in the second and rose 0.3% in the third, always in comparison with the previous period.

Regarding the large blocks, consumption rose 5.3% year-on-year, investment 10.3%, exports 10.2% and imports 23.7%.

Until two months ago, GDP was expected to decline in the third quarter. If two consecutive quarters of decline accumulate, activity officially enters a recession. But finally, the economy escaped from that scenario, thanks to the fact that The final data for August and September were better than expected.

From ACM they state that “as a whole, the data for the third quarter show a more than reasonable performance for an economy that went through a deep fiscal correction in the first year of the current government and a more restrictive monetary policy in the year under analysis, especially from mid-2025″.

“Going forward, the normalization of financial conditions after the elections and reduced macroeconomic uncertainty should contribute to sustain expansionalthough the pace of growth will continue to be conditioned by the evolution of credit, investment and persistent sectoral heterogeneity,” they add.

“In this context, our base scenario incorporates an upward correction in growth for 2025, which would be at 4.6%, driven by the better performance observed in the third quarter. The resulting statistical drag leaves growth for 2026 around 3.6%,” ACM points out.

From LCG they warn that the rebound in consumption “seems to be due solely to imported consumption. Compared to the same quarter last year, domestic consumption did not experience any changes, while imported consumption grew by 18%.”

Something similar is seen in investment. The purchase of durable domestic production equipment decreased 8%, while the increase was explained by the greater acquisition of imported equipment.

“So far in the fourth quarter, activity has presented an erratic evolution, with an October that seems to have been positive and a November, with less data available, that looks negative,” adds LCG and It projects growth for this year of 4.5% annually.