Middle East – Peace plan in Gaza stalls – Hamas disarmament a hurdle

It has been in effect for more than two months Gaza Strip officially one Truce. But for the people in the devastated coastal strip, everyday life is far from normal.

The 46 year old Mahmud Abd al-Hadi For example, he had to flee again and again with his family during the two-year war. To this day, their everyday lives are characterized by the struggle for supplies and the fear of a new outbreak of fighting between the Islamist Hamas and Israel’s army.

People are tired, says al-Hadi. “My children ask me when we will return home, when life will return to normal. And I have no answers.” The upcoming second phase of US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan calls for the disarmament of Hamas and the establishment of an international stabilization force (ISF). However, the terrorist organization strictly refuses to lay down its weapons.

Clear majority of Palestinians against disarming Hamas

Opinions on disarming Hamas also differ among the population. While the father of four al-Hadi is in favor of Hamas laying down its weapons, 29-year-old Ahmed Nasser al-Attar clearly rejects this. “Anyone who talks about the end of Hamas or the reconstruction of Gaza is out of touch with reality,” he says. The current ceasefire is not peace, “but only a temporary break.” The father of two is convinced that without a real peace settlement and an end to the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories, the conflict will continue. “My biggest fear is that my children will grow up in the same cycle as us: war, fragile calm and then war again.”

According to a survey by the Palestinian Center for Politics and Opinion Research in Ramallah, around 70 percent of Palestinians reject the disarmament of Hamas as envisaged in Trump’s peace plan. Rejection is particularly high in the West Bank at 80 percent, while in the war-torn Gaza Strip it is 55 percent.

Majority of Palestinians support Hamas terror of October 2023

And: Despite the catastrophic destruction and the deaths of tens of thousands of people in the coastal strip, according to the survey, more than half of Palestinians continue to support Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which triggered the war.

The humanitarian situation in the blocked area has improved somewhat since the ceasefire, but overall the situation remains precarious. According to the latest information from the UN emergency relief office Okha, more than 80 percent of the buildings in the coastal strip on the Mediterranean have been destroyed or damaged. Many people who have lost their homes continue to live in tent camps and are exposed to winter weather.

Complete victory over Hamas an illusion

The “absolute victory” over Hamas promised by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has proven to be an illusion. The terrorist organization probably continues to have power in the area it controls, thanks to its brutal actions against internal opponents, although it is definitely weakened. However, Hamas has no problems recruiting new fighters – certainly given the anger many people have over Israel’s harsh approach to the war.

Trump spoke of “peace in the Middle East” after agreeing a ceasefire on October 10 after two years of war. All that was agreed upon was a ceasefire – and even that remains fragile, with deadly incidents occurring again and again. According to the Hamas-controlled health authority, around 400 Palestinians have been killed in the Gaza Strip since the ceasefire began. Similar to Lebanon, Israel continues to attack the coastal strip; according to the army, these are terrorist targets. However, civilians also die.

As part of the Gaza “peace plan”, all of Hamas’ remaining hostages were released, and in return Israeli troops withdrew from parts of the Gaza Strip. The body of a hostage kidnapped on October 7, 2023 is still in the Gaza Strip – so all the conditions of the first phase of the Trump plan are still not met.

Uncertainty about the next phase

It is unclear how the next phase will be implemented. And it is therefore unclear whether the situation can be stabilized permanently. According to US special envoy Steve Witkoff, things are definitely making progress. After discussions with representatives from Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, he wrote on X on Saturday that further discussions should follow in the coming weeks “to advance the implementation of the second phase.” And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting the USA for a week from December 29th, and talks are also planned with Trump about how to proceed.

Gaza Strip de facto divided into two halves.

The plan, backed by a UN resolution, also calls for a further withdrawal of Israeli troops from the coastal strip. Palestinian political scientist Ghassan Chatib says the transition to the second phase is “difficult to impossible.” Neither Israel nor Hamas have any real concern about meeting the conditions. It is in Israel’s interest to maintain control over half of the Gaza Strip and not to withdraw its troops any further.

“And Hamas is convinced that it is better to maintain control over half of the Gaza Strip than to accept the option that would be offered to it in the second phase of the agreement,” says Khatib. In addition, it is difficult to find countries that want to take on military responsibility as part of the stabilization force.

So far only Turkey has expressed a clear willingness, but Israel rejects this because of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strong anti-Israel and pro-Hamas stance.

Disarming Hamas remains the biggest obstacle

Israeli political scientist Jonathan Rynhold emphasizes that without Hamas disarming there can be no serious progress in efforts to achieve lasting peace in the Gas Strip. “No one will disarm Hamas except the Israeli army, because none of the countries that have committed to an international force or have considered it are willing to do so,” Rynhold says. He also sees “no chance” that Trump could send American ground troops to take this into his own hands.