Unexpected GDP rebound: 1.6% in October

The Mexican economy exceeded expectations in October, showing the fastest pace at an annual rate and from one month to the next since July 2024, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).

The global indicator of economic activity (IGAE), a monthly approximation of the gross domestic product, registered a growth of 1.6 percent in October compared to the same month in 2024, with figures adjusted for seasonality, indicating a rebound after the annual fall of 0.4 percent in September.

The performance was mixed between sectors: primary activities (volatile sector that includes agriculture, livestock, forestry, fishing and hunting) rose 11.8 percent, while tertiary activities (services and commerce) grew 2.5 percent annually in October. In contrast, secondary (industry) fell 0.7 percent.

At a monthly rate, the IGAE presented an advance of one percent in October, an improvement compared to the 0.4 percent monthly decline observed in September. Primary activities grew 1.4 percent monthly, while tertiary activities increased 1.2 percent. Secondary activities rose 0.7 percent, after four monthly downward readings.

These results were above the 0.5 percent annual and monthly growth for October anticipated by the timely indicator of economic activity (IOAE), which Inegi published a few days ago, which although they anticipated an important advance in October, they fell short, since the Mexican economy had a notable rebound after the contraction it reported in September, in annual and monthly terms.

In the industry, the annual progress in the generation, transmission, distribution and marketing of electrical energy, water supply and natural gas through pipelines to the final consumer stood out, with 1.7 percent in October. Meanwhile, business support and waste management services, as well as remediation services, rose 9.3 percent compared to October of last year.

Accumulated advance of 0.2%

In the accumulated period from January to October 2025, with original figures, the economy registered a slight advance of 0.2 percent annually, affected mainly by the weakness of mining, construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, temporary accommodation services and food and beverage preparation, with annual falls of 7.7, 2.2, 0.5, 5.2 and 3 percent, in that order.

These falls reflect the stagnation of investment and lower external demand. However, the dynamism in some service branches, such as retail trade (which has grown 4.2 percent annually for the year to date) and professional and business support services (9.7 and 13.5 percent, respectively) made it possible to cushion part of the fall. Primary activities contributed, driven by a rebound in agriculture (5.1 percent annually).

“Although the IGAE returned to positive territory, counteracting the weakness of the previous month, we do not interpret this data as a structural change in trend and we continue to see a challenging outlook for 2026,” said Mauricio Guzmán, investment strategy leader at Sura Investments.