Brazil can join the right-wing wave in the AL driven by security

The movement occurs in line with Donald Trump’s government in the United States and with the significant popular indignation at organized crime, urban violence and economic instability, factors that have been redefining the mood of the electorate in the region and encouraging Brazilian conservative leaders.

According to Márcio Coimbra, general director of the Democracy Monitor Institute, “the revitalization of right-wing forces in South America is undeniable”, driven by the search for alternatives in the face of persistent social and economic challenges. For him, public security has become a central pillar of this advancement. “Voters value proposals that promise a direct and effective fight against organized and common crime, an issue with a strong capacity for electoral mobilization”, he states.

Coimbra assesses that, in Brazil, security has already demonstrated a high potential for impact at the polls, which suggests the possibility of a repetition, in 2026, of the movement observed in other countries. “The rise of conservative views should be read as part of an ideological rebalancing that can strengthen political competition,” he says.

The return of a right-wing president to the La Moneda Palace, in Chile, after years of left-wing governments, reinforces the reading of experts heard by the People’s Gazette about a conservative wave already observed recently in countries like Argentina and Bolivia. Kast will take office in March, succeeding the leftist Gabriel Boric, in a context of strong polarization and social demands for tougher responses to crime and institutional disorder.

The Latin American political map, however, remains marked by contrasts. Brazil, Uruguay and Colombia have migrated from right to left in recent years, while surrounding countries indicate the opposite movement. At the same time, long-standing leftist regimes, such as Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, continue in the authoritarian format, accumulating international condemnations for systematic human rights violations.

In this scenario, the United States significantly increased pressure on Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. In recent days, Trump announced the total blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela and reinforced the military presence in the Caribbean, within a strategy of political and economic isolation associated with the discourse of combating drug trafficking and drug cartels.

The escalation gained explicit support from right-wing leaders in the region, such as Argentine president Javier Milei and the recently elected Chilean José Antonio Kast, who declared support for “any situation that ends the Venezuelan dictatorship”. Their alignment highlights more assertive regional coordination against Maduro and other left-wing governments, expanding Caracas’ diplomatic isolation.

Expert sees frustration as a factor favorable to the advancement of the right in Brazil

Eduardo Galvão, director of public relations at consultancy Burson, highlights that voting in Latin America has been increasingly guided by concrete frustration rather than ideological alignments. “Voters react to the inability of governments to deliver results in sensitive areas such as inflation, growth, security and public services. The alternation starts to function as a punishment, not as a programmatic choice”, he assesses.

This process is accelerated by a hyperconnected society, in which social networks compress political time and practically eliminate the old “honeymoon” of governments. Crises, mistakes and unpopular decisions gain immediate scale, intensifying the perception of failure. “The result is a faster and more unstable political pendulum, which makes it difficult to consolidate long cycles, whether on the right or on the left”, he adds.

For Galvão, Brazil is inserted in this same environment of social impatience and permanent judgment, but the electoral outcome will depend less on the regional ideological wind and more on the internal capacity for delivery. “If there is growth, employment and economic predictability, the pressure for change tends to cool down. If frustrations accumulate, the country can reproduce the recent Latin American pattern, of rapid alternations and an increasingly volatile electorate”, he concludes.

Driven by Chile and Argentina, Latin America describes a conservative trend

In addition to Argentina — where Milei consolidated a libertarian-leaning right — and Chile, South America is now home to a series of governments identified with the right or center-right. In Bolivia, Rodrigo Paz broke almost two decades of hegemony of the Movement to Socialism (MAS). Peru and Ecuador also went through similar processes of alternation, reinforcing the perception of the ruin of leftist experiences.

At the other end, countries like Mexico and the Dominican Republic maintain left or center-left leadership, while Honduras and Guatemala have more balanced disputes between opposing camps. Still, the conservative advance has rekindled expectations that new shifts to the right will occur in the region’s next elections.

The rise of these forces — today at the head of at least six South American governments: Chile, Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru — is interpreted by analysts as a direct response to popular fatigue with unfulfilled promises, low economic growth and growing insecurity. On the opposite side, Brazil governed by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) emerges as the biggest trench of the Latin American left.

The so-called “pink tide”, which dominated the continent in the early 2000s, is undergoing a critical review in light of the current shift to the right. Analysts point to signs of the exhaustion of progressive projects and the opening of space for leaders who defend market economies and rigorously combat crime — agendas that resonate with significant portions of society.

For Brazil, the expectation is that the 2026 presidential election will function less like a conventional dispute between candidates and more like a referendum on ideological directions: the continuity of progressive and left-wing policies or the adoption of a more conservative and right-wing path, similar to what is observed in neighboring countries.