Americans skeptical about $2,000 ‘tariff dividend’

In January, Ruby and Nathaniel Jumper, a couple living in Mercedes, Texas, began saving money so they could go to Tennessee to find better job opportunities and a larger house. But the unexpected increase in bills and food prices made their plans increasingly distant.

“It was really difficult,” Ruby said. The couple is closely watching an idea being discussed in Washington: a $2,000 tax refund for people next year.

US President Donald Trump in recent months has repeatedly mentioned the idea of ​​giving each American 2,000 USD in profits from the global reciprocal tax policy.

The idea of ​​a “tariff dividend” has not been concretized into a detailed plan, but many independent studies have concluded that the amount of money collected from US tariff policy is not enough to finance large-scale tax refunds.

The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates that tax refunds will cost the US government between $279.8 billion and $606.8 billion, depending on the recipient group, much higher than the $158.4 billion that tariff policy is expected to bring in in 2025.

Economic experts also expressed concern that tax refunds could contribute to increased inflation, like Covid-19 subsidies did. The idea also did not receive enthusiastic responses in Congress, even from some Republicans.

“I think this idea needs to be clarified more,” said Republican congressman Ryan Zinke in Montana Politico. “We are in debt of 36-37 trillion USD. To me, this bus is full. If you want to add one thing, you have to reduce another thing.”

Many Americans believe that if this money reaches them, it does not have much meaning, especially when buying gifts during Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year makes them more aware that money is no longer as valuable as before.

“Every year, we buy up to 3-4 gifts for our children during the year-end holiday season. This year, each child only gets one gift,” Jumper and his wife said.

“The prices are so expensive. Everything is so unbelievable,” said Andrei Thies in Milwaukee, saying that this year she also bought fewer Christmas gifts for her family than usual.

In downtown New Orleans, Shawnell and Chris Thiel left the Riverwalk Outlets shopping center with a few odd items, including donuts for their children. The couple complained that the prices of everything had increased.

“The smallest toys last year cost $10, but now they’ve doubled,” Chris, 46, said. “We will have to buy less. The situation is not very positive.”

Recent polls show that a majority of American adults plan to spend less during the holiday season than last year due to rising commodity prices.

Analysts and retailers are aware of this and are counting on high-income customers to drive holiday sales.

“High-income shoppers are likely to account for a dominant proportion of year-end sales, contributing largely to growth compared to 2024,” said Jennifer Timmerman, senior expert at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

According to Ms. Timmerman, lower-income shoppers will hunt for promotions and rely on buy now, pay later to get through the holiday season.

Thiel heard about Mr. Trump’s $2,000 tax refund plan, saying this could be useful support, but could not create much change in family life.

“No matter how much money you receive, the bills will increase accordingly. It’s a large sum of money, but it will leave the same way it came,” the couple said.

In Milwaukee, Laura Creswell is not too hopeful about receiving tax refunds. But if accepted, she plans to use this money to set up a reserve fund.

“My savings are almost gone. Having a little financial cushion makes it easier to breathe,” she said. “A lot of things, food, meat, eggs, everything is much more expensive. I try to save throughout the year, but there’s not much left.”

“Everything is more expensive. I would certainly welcome $2,000, but this is just a vicious cycle, bringing us back to the beginning,” said Ryan McDonald, who lives in New Jersey. “I wish Mr. Trump would not impose import tariffs from the beginning.”