A larger fiscal deficit threatens the debt rating: Banamex

Mexico has a fiscal imbalance that could bring public debt to 60 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2027, according to Banamex.

In your Review of the economic situation of Mexicothe financial institution’s analysts highlighted that there is a systematic imbalance between the pace of growth of the country’s income and spending, which is why the increase in debt increases the risk that rating agencies will reduce the sovereign’s credit rating in future reviews.

Given this scenario, Banamex stated that the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) would be forced to sacrifice investment and/or would have to increase taxes to keep public debt stable as a percentage of GDP.

He added that although the three main rating agencies maintain Mexico with an investment grade rating, a further deterioration could put the sovereign at risk of losing this category in a couple of years, which would have high costs for the economy as a whole with increases in the cost of public and private financing.

Regarding the global economy, he noted that it has gradually adapted to the environment of high uncertainty, demonstrating strength in the face of commercial reconfiguration, which has also been supported by high expectations of artificial intelligence (AI). “Global growth would remain resilient in this context of various transformative changes,” he mentioned.

Banamex estimated global GDP at 2.6 percent by 2025 and 3 percent next year.

“The world has gradually adapted to the environment of high uncertainty, demonstrating resilience,” the firm highlighted.

He explained that in the first half of the year an environment of high uncertainty remained due to the intensification of various geopolitical conflicts, the global political reconfiguration and the trade war initiated by the United States.

“This has moderated in the second half of 2025, with macroeconomic fundamentals remaining relatively strong and a moderate impact from higher tariffs,” he said. He stated that various activity indicators continue to point to a weakening in global growth compared to previous years, although with considerable resilience and growth similar to that recorded in the pre-pandemic period.

“In this regard, there has been greater fragmentation of the global economy, giving way to a more multipolar system with heterogeneous performance between regions and sectors,” commented the institution.