Regional powers, with the exception of Israel, show no desire to lead a military or political initiative against the organization, as Hamas maintains a deep hold among the Muslim population in the region who see it as a natural extension of the Palestinian struggle. The ruling elites, especially in the Gulf monarchies, fear an internal legitimacy crisis if they alienate the public who consider this issue sacred.
However, President Trump is described as a pragmatist who is not interested in completely distancing the populations of the region from US influence. His goal is to create a manageable status quo in Gaza, supported by actors capable of maintaining it. The framework set by the president creates serious negotiations and forces regional actors to adjust their positions.
In this changing landscape, Ankara is aggressively lobbying for a role in the international stabilization force. The move is driven by urgent geopolitical needs and not just historical romance. Turkey feels the pressure arising from Israel’s hegemonic position which limits the room for maneuver of other powers, as well as from the need to secure its interests in Syria and Lebanon.
At the same time, while Saudi Arabia uses the “Arab file” to manage domestic affairs within the framework of Vision 2030, Turkey seeks to adapt its foreign policy to the incoming administration of President Trump and to position itself as a vital mediator capable of delivering results to the US. According to the analysis, legitimacy is the rarest resource in post-conflict Gaza. Turkey holds unique capital and trust from the Palestinians, who, unlike other parts of the Arab world, do not harbor resentment To the Ottoman heritage, Turkish presence will be seen as a guarantee of stability and not as an occupation.
Strategically, Ankara is determined to shape the geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean to its advantage, given the strengthening stabilization between Greece, Cyprus and Israel. Although relations between Turkey and Israel have suffered from structural instability since the 1950s, direct confrontation seems unlikely as both countries operate under the American security umbrella. Historically, Turkey is not new to this arena, as it previously contributed to a peacekeeping force in Hebron after the Oslo Accords in 1997.
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