Why is Russia likely to reject the new US-Ukraine peace plan?

Zelensky presented the new proposal as a reasonable compromise with the plan drawn up by Kirill Dmitrievspecial envoy of the Russian president Vladimir Putin, y Steve Witkoffspecial envoy of the president Donald Trumpand presented in November.

The new plan includes security guarantees which kyiv wants to prevent future Russian aggression, as well as plans to rebuild the war-ravaged nation.

But a Kremlin emboldened by Moscow’s advances on the battlefield and constrained by the difficulty of selling the new plan to the Russian public as a victory is unlikely to accept it.

“This is a absolute mockery” Alexei Naumov, a Moscow-based international affairs analyst, said of the new Ukrainian plan in a post on the Telegram messaging app.

“The idea is clear: present this to the Americans as a ‘compromise’ and then blame Russia for its failure.”

Over the past two years, Putin has consistently stressed two main points: Ukraine must withdraw its forces from the rest of the regions of Donetsk y Luhanskand membership in NATO must be ruled out.

Putin confirmed this position on Friday at his annual press conference. He stated that Russia was willing to make some “concessions”, which are believed to involve ceding Russian-occupied territories in the Ukrainian regions of Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia.

However, he stressed that Moscow remained willing to continue the fight to fully occupy the Donetsk region.

The Ukrainian peace plan stipulates that Russia must withdraw its forces from the Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

The proposal also states that Ukraine would withdraw its troops from areas of the Donetsk region that would become a demilitarized zone, but only if Russia withdraws its forces from an equivalent swath of territory.

“The plan does not offer any concessions regarding the territories or the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant” stated Georgi Bovt, a Russian analyst, about the plant, which is occupied by Russian forces, but which Ukraine would prefer to operate jointly with the United States.

“If the territorial issue is not resolved, this is ruled out.”

Although Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been costly to both the Russian economy and Moscow’s military, the Kremlin still appears to believe that can win more fighting.

The Russian economy is at its weakest point since 2022, with interest rates at record highs and growth rates heading toward recession.

However, despite the sanctions imposed by the West due to the war, analysts say the country is still far from an economic crisis that would force the Kremlin to change course.

Russia occupies approximately three-quarters of the Donetsk region. At the current rate of advance, it would take Moscow’s forces about 18 months to capture the entire region.

Dmitry MedvedevRussia’s hardline security official and former president, said on Wednesday that about 417,000 recruits signed new contracts to join the Russian military in 2025, a figure largely consistent with estimates by independent researchers.

The continuous flow of new recruits means that Russia can afford to continue the war despite suffering heavy losses.

Russia is interested in negotiating a possible peace agreement to maintain a working relationship with Washington and avoid assuming all the responsibility. blame for the current conflictsay the experts.

Moscow is also interested in delaying any additional sanctions or other economic restrictions from Washington.

The sanctions imposed in October by Trump on the two Russian oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil, have forced the country to sell its oil with discounts significantly older.

The tug-of-war over potential peace terms also deepens rifts between Ukraine and its Western allies as details are hashed out in several capitals in grueling negotiations.

On Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin had been informed about the new proposals and that Moscow was forming its position.

“Our colleagues in the United States are perfectly aware of the main parameters of Russia’s position,” he said.

A Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Thursday that there was “slow but steady progress” in negotiations with the United States.

Ukraine indicated that talks were continuing over the Christmas holidays.

Zelensky claimed to have discussed “substantial details of the work in progress” on Thursday with Witkoff and Jared KushnerTrump’s son-in-law.

Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, was scheduled to speak with the Americans later in the day, Zelensky added.

“We believe this is the right approach: not to miss a single day or a single opportunity that could bring us closer to the result,” Zelensky declared in a social media post.

Commentators said diplomatic tug-of-war over peace terms is likely to continue as the war progresses.

“Putin has no intention of ending the war against Ukraine nor is he willing to make even minor concessions at this stage,” Volodymyr Fesenko, a kyiv-based analyst, said in a Facebook post.

“For the Kremlin, discussing Trump’s peace plan is purely a tactical game with the United States to maintain constructive relations with the current American president and at the same time provoke friction and contradictions between the United States and Ukraine.”