Hope for stability: Kosovo elects a new parliament

Kurti ruled alone for four years from 2021. He had an absolute majority behind him in parliament. This year in February the situation changed. Despite a clear election victory with over 42 percent for Vetevendosja, Kurti was no longer able to form a stable government: he neither found a coalition partner nor did a government majority form against him. The 50-year-old tried to use political sleight of hand to at least stay in office as an executive.

Kurti delayed the constitution of the new parliament by hindering the correct election of the presidium. Finally, the Constitutional Court intervened in the fall. But neither Kurti nor a party colleague who was subsequently tasked with forming a government received the affirmative approval of the parliament elected in February. Therefore, the next round of voting is now taking place.

The winds in foreign policy have changed somewhat

In order to score points with voters, the head of government primarily filled up rifts with foreign partners: from the USA He took in deported migrants from third countries and thus ensured goodwill. A week before Christmas, the President of the EU Commission announced Ursula von der Leyen the lifting of EU sanctions against Kosovo. Withheld economic aid should now flow again. Meetings between high-ranking EU representatives and top Kosovar politicians who were suspended are now scheduled to take place again.

The reason for the punitive measures and tensions with the allies was a paradigm shift that Kurti brought about at the head of the Kosovo government: Firstly, more independence for the young state of Kosovo vis-à-vis foreign actors who had great and direct influence on politics under his compliant predecessors. Secondly, the tough enforcement of sovereignty by the government and authorities in northern Kosovo, where the Serbs, who make up around six percent of the population, do not want to fully integrate even 17 years after the declaration of independence because they do not feel safe and do not have equal rights.

Serbia does not recognize independence

Regarding the second point, the EU had made the rapprochement of Kosovo and Serbia conditional on the establishment of normal bilateral relations. Kosovo gained independence from Serbia after the 1998/99 war and years under UN administration. Serbia does not recognize this. A dialogue mediated by the EU has been running for years on the ongoing conflicts. Both agreed on several issues, but little was implemented – without consequences.

One agreement concerned Kosovo license plates. When Kurti pushed through the recognition and use of the number plates in the Serbian part of the country, the mayors there, as well as the Serbian members of the Kosovo police and judiciary, resigned. The prime minister then had the mayors in northern Kosovo re-elected. The Serbs blocked the election. With participation of only around 3.5 percent, Kosovar Albanians have now become mayors in municipalities where the Serbian population by far predominates. Newly elected Serbs are now in office again.

This led to months of unrest in northern Kosovo, which culminated in an attack by Serbs on the police that left several people dead. That went too far even for the EU. Kurti had to promise that he would not also attack the Serbs’ parallel structures, which from Kosovo’s point of view were illegal – schools with teachers paid by Serbia who teach according to the Serbian curriculum and health facilities with doctors and nursing staff paid by Serbia. But because the head of government did not do enough to calm the situation, sanctions followed.

Von der Leyen’s announcement as a campaign boost for Kurti?

Von der Leyen recently announced, as he said, “good news for Kosovo.” “We are planning 216 million euros in financial aid and intend to release 205 million euros early next year,” wrote the EU Commission President on The World Bank is withholding 127 million euros that should flow into the Kosovo education and health system.

During the election campaign, Prime Minister Kurti used von der Leyen’s announcement to make announcements like this: He promised higher salaries, a billion euros in investments per year, but also a new prosecutor’s office unit to combat organized crime. During a campaign appearance a few days ago, he trumpeted the local broadcaster Channel 10 optimistically: “I think it is now more realistic than ever before that there will be a Kurti III cabinet.”

There are no reliable, published, current survey values. This election will be the most important since independence “because it comes after a year of deadlock and four months before the election of a new president,” political analyst Artan Muhaxhiri told Reuters. “If Kurti gets around 42 percent again, things will come to a standstill again, because the gap between him and the other parties is huge and unbridgeable.” The Kosovo parliament has 120 seats. 20 of these are reserved for representatives of minority parties. If Kurti can only partially build on previous successes with tailwind from Washington and Brussels, he would not need a larger coalition partner such as the Democratic Party (PDK) or the Democratic League (LDK). Then it might be enough for him to get a few minority representatives to support him.